PREVIEW: Excerpt from a conversation with Chris Riegel of Scala.com re the defaulting wave sweeping commercial real estate across America's major and secondary cities. The WSJ says between now and 2027 $2.2 Trillion of commercial buildings are coming due,
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 18 January 2024
⏱️ 3 minutes
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Summary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/blackstone-s-defaulted-nyc-office-loan-for-sale-at-50-discount?sref=5g4GmFHo
1913 Old Morgan building for the wrecking ball.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Alex met Sam at nursery. They were first loves. They built forts together, shared sandwiches in high school, and were each other's first kiss. |
| 0:11.0 | They were the dream couple, Sam got into EDM music. |
| 0:17.0 | While Alex enjoyed folk, first loves are kind of like your current account. If they aren't working for you anymore, |
| 0:26.7 | maybe it's time to switch with the current account switch service. |
| 0:30.3 | This is John Bachelor. The pandemic's behind us, but the damage done to major cities, center cities is not. Commercial real estate. |
| 0:39.0 | The alarm bells are ringing now. The amount of mortgages come due in these next years to 27 |
| 0:46.0 | is more than 2 trillion says the Wall Street Journal. Buildings right now are |
| 0:51.5 | being marked down 50, 60, 70%. Speaking with colleague Chris Regal |
| 0:57.2 | about what this looks like across America, he has business in many cities, major and secondary cities. |
| 1:04.0 | Manhattan and San Francisco stand out, but Los Angeles and Chicago are not far behind, |
| 1:09.7 | and all of the cities are going to deal with the fact that the big commercial buildings |
| 1:14.0 | that were filled with workers are no longer filled either work at home or simply |
| 1:19.8 | the cities are no longer viable and that would be San Francisco for the immediate |
| 1:24.7 | future. Here's Chris Regal on commercial real estate coming due and not being |
| 1:31.0 | able to pay the mortgage. |
| 1:32.1 | John now you're starting to enter a cycle and not being able to pay the mortgage. |
| 1:33.0 | John, now you're starting to enter a cycle of fear and that drives the greatest danger. |
| 1:38.0 | We're routinely seeing examples of buildings that may be profitable, may be viable, but banks are starting to write |
| 1:45.9 | off the sector and not loan in the sector. |
| 1:48.7 | So that could accelerate the crash or accelerate the correction where in a San Francisco, in a New York, it's |
| 1:56.6 | understood that there will be very large write-downs on buildings. |
| 1:59.6 | That might be 50%, 60% 70%. |
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