This is John Batchel, a conversation with colleague David Diood of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,

listing, partial listing, the troubles that arise out of the fragmented Syria, the troubles that arise

aiming at Israel. Israel is now taken up positions on the Golan Heights and Mount Airman and is patrolling

into Syria.

But as David lists very quickly, trouble in all directions, especially the NATO power, Turkey.

Here's David Dalyud on things to worry about right now.

I think we're talking about even assuming the best of intentions on the behalf of Ahmad

Shadha, his ability to consolidate control over his country. And that'll be critical to

where which direction Syria takes moving forward.

If it, you know, again, this is assuming best of intentions, if it moves along a, a productive

path or kind of a libbyization of Syria occurs, where you have Syria kind of fragment into different

statelets, that's not a foregone conclusion. And the fragmentation

will pose threats to Israel because that will allow the proliferation of different jihadist

groups of the Sunni variety. It will allow the reentry of Iran. As you noted, the Alawites,

look, these were the erstwhile allies of the Iranians. They have an interest in Iran has an interest in them,

creating problems for the new administration in Damascus, which is hostile to Iran. And they have

an interest in bringing back some degree of outside support, either Russian, Iranian, because with

Ahmadis Shahraz rise, the Alawites have lost their

predominance in Syria. They perhaps feel threatened by the new administration in Damascus.

So there is a confluence of interest here between Iran, Hezbollah, and the Alouites to maintain

some kind of degree of fragmentation in Syria that they can then exploit to come back into Syria,

reinvigorate Hezbole, Lebanon, and that'll create new threats for the Israelis.

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