Here's your Forbes Daily Briefing for Sunday, November 3rd.

Today on Forbes, here's how the presidential polls might be wrong.

Polling for the 2024 presidential election shows the candidates in a dead heat, but experts say

polling accuracy is complicated.

President Donald Trump's intense, typically less engaged voter

base has complicated presidential election polling in recent years, and as the election approaches

without clear trends in polling data, experts are evaluating the theories behind where

2024's polling may be accurate and lacking.

In 2020, presidential polling was called the, quote,

most inaccurate in 40 years, and still inexplicably predicted President Joe Biden's win

by more than three percentage points of his eventual margin,

with some believing the pandemic caused less survey engagement and failed to

capture Trump's support strengthening, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a panel of polling experts.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was widely projected to win by sweeping the key blue-wall states of

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but was edged by Trump in all three,

and lost handily.

But the 2018 and 2022 midterm election polling were relatively accurate, further complicating

pollster's understanding of the factors at play.

Now, concerns around polling have returned as the race continues to be nearly tied, with concerns

on both sides that incorrect polling figures, even a, quote, small systematic polling error,

could unpredictably skew the results, writes prominent statistician Nate Silver in the New York

Times.

...