Prediction markets, pardons spark questions over who's profiting from Trump's presidency
PBS News Hour - Segments
PBS NewsHour
4.1 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 31 March 2026
⏱️ 7 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | The Pentagon today is strongly denying a report by the Financial Times that Defense Secretary |
| 0:06.1 | Pete Hegeseth's stockbroker was seeking to make large investments in major defense companies |
| 0:12.0 | in the days right before the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran. |
| 0:16.5 | That report is raising yet more concern about the many people in and around the Trump administration |
| 0:22.1 | who seem to be profiting in unusual ways. |
| 0:26.0 | White House correspondent Liz Landers takes a closer look. |
| 0:32.4 | Early last week as the United States and Iran continued to exchange strikes in the Middle East, |
| 0:43.3 | there was a spike in the crude oil futures trading volume around 6.49 a.m. Eastern time. A few minutes later at 7.05 a.m., the president posted on his social media platform that he was suspending |
| 0:49.3 | strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days. |
| 0:53.3 | The stock market opened up and oil prices went down. |
| 0:57.2 | A combined $800 million in trades was made. |
| 1:00.8 | The timing of the market movement could be coincidental, but it produced a windfall all the same. |
| 1:06.1 | And traders aren't just getting rich in traditional marketplaces. |
| 1:09.8 | Polymarket, a prediction marketplace where individuals |
| 1:12.0 | can bet on anything from sports to politics, has seen several users bet specifically on |
| 1:17.1 | U.S. military action related to Iran and rake in money. Before the president's latest announcement |
| 1:23.0 | claiming the U.S. and Iran were actively engaged in productive talks, several newly created |
| 1:28.2 | accounts bet nearly $160,000 that a ceasefire will happen by March 31st or April 15th. |
| 1:36.1 | After the president's comments, the value of those bets doubled and stand to pay out |
| 1:40.2 | to $1 million if the ceasefire happens by April 15th. |
| 1:45.0 | Who's behind these bets? |
| 1:47.0 | Polymarket and other online prediction market sites like Kalshi allow users to place bets anonymously, |
... |
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