#PRC: Debt. Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of the upcoming new edition of China Alone: Return to Isolation. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 15 June 2023
⏱️ 9 minutes
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#PRC: Debt. Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of the upcoming new edition of China Alone: Return to Isolation. @GordonGChang, Gatestone, Newsweek, The Hill
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fueled-by-long-credit-binge-chinas-economy-faces-drag-from-debt-purge-e4621859
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is CBS. I am the world. I'm John Batsu with my colleague in Fran Gordon Chang at |
| 0:10.3 | Corden G Chang. The People's Republic of China is in deep debt. The headline at the Wall Street |
| 0:17.4 | Journal, however, gives us directions to understand the depth of the debt and how the business |
| 0:24.5 | model that brought them to this impasse does not offer a solution. The headline, fueled by long |
| 0:33.8 | credit binge, China's economy faces drag from debt purge. Subhead consumers, businesses, and |
| 0:41.5 | local governments are looking to de-leverage. A lot of jargon, so we welcome Ann Stephenson Yang, |
| 0:47.1 | and is the author of the upcoming new edition of China alone, Return to Isolation. And I'll take |
| 0:53.8 | that headline and start in pieces. Long credit binge. What is that? What are they talking about? |
| 1:00.2 | Good evening, too. Good evening, John. So what that means is essentially the Chinese began their |
| 1:09.2 | reform and opening period with very few domestic assets and investment at that time in the 1980s was |
| 1:16.6 | very productive for China because if you've never had a road and then suddenly you have a road, |
| 1:21.3 | you can sell your stuff to the cities. But what happened was in 2008-09 when the International |
| 1:27.5 | Economy Crash China felt, oh my god, we're too dependent on the International Economy, we have to |
| 1:33.1 | start depending on ourselves. So they pushed a ton of credit into the economy. And between that time |
| 1:39.0 | and now they've built up as many assets in the banking system as it took the United States 150 |
| 1:45.6 | years to build. So there's been a massive credit binge. So that's the long credit binge. Now |
| 1:52.0 | China's economy faces drag from debt purge, drag from debt purge. What does that mean? |
| 1:59.6 | Well, that means that they're trying to overcome this, but it's very difficult. You know, |
| 2:04.8 | it's often discussed what proportion Chinese debt is to GDP and it kind of doesn't seem to mean |
| 2:12.8 | very much. But I think you can take it as a proxy for what's unproductive in the economy because |
| 2:18.8 | after all, if you invest $10 and you get $12 of benefit or $10 of benefit, then GDP grows. So your |
| 2:27.0 | ratio doesn't increase. So what it means when you have 300% or more debt to GDP is that those are |
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