Political risk can be economic risk, too
Marketplace All-in-One
Marketplace
4.5 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 10 January 2025
⏱️ 9 minutes
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Summary
With Donald Trump’s second inauguration about 10 days away, it’s a good time to survey what lies ahead for the U.S. and global economies. The political risk consultancy Eurasia Group recently put out its annual list of top risks for the year ahead. In 2025, rivalries and instability could pose threats to the global economy. Also: a look at the British bond market and what to expect when you’re expecting a jobs report.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Can policies that drive up inflation still be popular? I'm David Brancaccio. First, we'll get the big |
| 0:08.5 | hiring and unemployment reports in about an hour and a half numbers collected in December. Marketplaces, |
| 0:15.0 | Nancy Marshall-Genser has the pre-game report. Job growth shot up in November. The economy added 227,000 new jobs, |
| 0:23.9 | but part of that was striking Boeing employees going back to work and people returning to their |
| 0:29.0 | jobs after hurricanes. Today's jobs report for December could be slightly distorted by seasonal |
| 0:35.6 | factors. Temp workers hired for the holidays may be laid off. |
| 0:39.4 | Construction workers could be idled because of cold weather. Oxford Economics lead U.S. |
| 0:44.3 | economist Nancy Vandenhouten is looking for trends in today's jobs data, especially for people |
| 0:50.1 | who've been unemployed for a while. While layoffs are subdued, people who have lost their jobs are finding it more difficult to |
| 0:58.9 | find new ones. And so we have seen continued claims come off their recent high, but they're |
| 1:05.0 | still elevated. Continued claims measure the number of people who've already been unemployed |
| 1:09.7 | for at least a week and are |
| 1:11.3 | continuing to claim unemployment benefits. Van Den Houten says overall the labor market is still |
| 1:17.3 | healthy, but if more people are out of work for longer, they could pull back on spending, |
| 1:22.6 | and that would slow down the overall economy. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace. |
| 1:29.5 | A big sell-off in the British bond market has driven interest rates there to their |
| 1:33.5 | highest in about a quarter century. This is a teachable moment beyond Britain about limits to how |
| 1:38.2 | much governments can borrow. Here's my Marketplace BBC colleague, Leanna Byrne. You know bonds, |
| 1:43.7 | those IOUs that governments and companies sell to raise cash? |
| 1:47.6 | Well, right now the yield on the UK's 10-year bond, which is basically the interest rate Britain has to pay, is hovering around 4.8%. |
| 1:56.8 | Down just a notch from Thursday's high of 4.93%. Raising yields mean investors see more risk and want bigger returns. |
| 2:06.5 | One of the risks driving yields up is a familiar story internationally. Sticky inflation in the US and other major economies has sparked a global sell-off in government bonds. But other risks are domestic, |
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