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The Compound and Friends

Permabears are Ridiculous People (with Josh and Michael)

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 6 April 2019

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week, one of the most well known permabears came out and took a victory lap despite the fact his commentary has been negative about stocks forever.  But it's a trick...  People can pick different indexes, use price versus total return data, cherry pick from among their own statements and do all sorts of other jiujitsu to hide their bad calls. Investors would do better to ignore all of it, but this is hard - so being armed with this knowledge is the next best thing.  Read Michael Batnick's explanation here:  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2019/04/02/how-to-be-wrong-and-think-youre-right/ Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!" https://www.amazon.com/Ritholtz-Wealth-Management-LLC-Compound/dp/B07P777QBZ Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here:  http://ritholtzwealth.com/ Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer: https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi, I'm Josh Brown. Welcome to Live from the Compound.

0:03.0

Recently, a very famous well-known permabare decided to take a victory lap on his 23-year call to not be invested in equities or to downplay.

0:13.6

Strategically underweight.

0:14.6

Strategically underweight equities.

0:16.6

And obviously it's the most ridiculous thing you've ever seen and heard.

0:20.2

We're going to get into this concept that somebody could be this wrong and still find a way to use data and say that they were right.

0:28.4

Mike, we're not going to name names today. We're going to be gentlemen. However, I was pretty offended reading about the

0:35.4

permabare who's been strategically underweight stocks for 20 some odd years and

0:39.4

thinks it was a good decision and thinks that people would have benefited by

0:42.4

listening.

0:44.0

How was this particular victory lap able to have been taken?

0:50.3

What games are being played?

0:51.6

Well, the problem with this is that he says that he's

0:58.2

been he said quote my consistent Uber bullishness on Western government bond markets never seems to attract as much attention as my extreme bearishness on equities.

1:07.0

So he's been saying buy treasuries and global sovereigns and be short or out of stocks.

1:12.0

And he wants credit for the long bond call.

1:14.3

Yeah, but the problem is, first of all,

1:16.8

there's a lot that goes into a 23-year call.

1:19.7

You know what I mean?

1:20.3

Like nobody lives in 23-year periods.

1:21.6

Nobody woke up 23 years later after

1:24.0

listening to him and says stupidest than ever but so the point is like there's

...

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