People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters
The Story
The Times
3.9 • 1.6K Ratings
🗓️ 27 March 2026
⏱️ 33 minutes
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Summary
Polymarket and Kalshi have become two of the fastest-growing online platforms in the prediction market, hosting bets where people can wager on the outcome of events, including on the conflict in Iran. But some observers have raised concerns that unusually precise, well-timed bets could point to insider dealings. So what exactly are prediction markets? And what does it mean for society when you can bet on almost anything?
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Guest: Chris Stokel-Walker, technology journalist and author.
Host: Manveen Rana.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Manvim Rana. |
| 0:09.0 | Watching the war in the Middle East unfold has caused shock and horror around the world. But for some, |
| 0:17.2 | it's also offered an opportunity. |
| 0:21.6 | Deadly American strikes, and some people may have made money from them. |
| 0:26.6 | In the murky world of online prediction markets, on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, |
| 0:32.6 | users can place bets on many aspects of the wall. |
| 0:36.6 | Polymarket takes bets on anything from who will win the NCAA tournament to what will |
| 0:42.3 | top the Netflix movie charts. And increasingly popular are trades like this, a US and Iran |
| 0:50.0 | ceasefire by June 30th. If you take a look at any one of these sites, you'll see people betting on when the war will end, |
| 0:59.0 | when traffic will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and when U.S. ground |
| 1:04.0 | forces might enter Iranian territory. |
| 1:07.0 | A number of punters have reportedly made about a million US dollars by correctly predicting |
| 1:12.4 | when the United States would strike Iran at the weekend. |
| 1:15.9 | It's become such an eerily precise predictor of what's about to happen that the founder |
| 1:21.9 | of one of these sites, Polly Market, claims it's the most accurate forecast of geopolitical events in existence. |
| 1:29.3 | It's the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball. |
| 1:36.3 | But how does it keep getting it right? |
| 1:40.3 | Some are alleging that the unusually accurate bets could be the sign of people profiteering from insider dealing. |
| 1:48.5 | The perfectly timed wager is raising questions about possible insider knowledge with national security implications. |
| 1:54.9 | Both Polymarket and Kalshi said this week that they'd tighten their rules on insider trading. |
| 2:01.8 | And now, some U.S. states are taking action. |
| 2:05.6 | Attorney General Chris Mays in Arizona is suing the company behind Calci. |
... |
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