Paul Ashworth: ‘Forecasting Is Difficult at the Best of Times, and This Is not the Best of Times’

The Long View

Morningstar

Finance, Dan Lefkovitz, Amy Arnott, Entrepreneurship, Investing Leaders, Jeff Ptak, Investors, Christine Benz, Influential Investors, Careers, Long-term Investing, Financial Services, Business, Investing, Morningstar

4.5 • 775 Ratings

🗓️ 10 June 2025

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

A seasoned macroeconomist talks through short-term and long-term economic drivers.

Transcript

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0:30.1	Please stay tuned for important disclosure information at the conclusion of this episode.
0:36.7	Hi, and welcome to the Longview.
0:38.3	I'm Dan Lefkowitz, strategist for Morning Star Indexes.
0:41.3	Our guest this week is Dr. Paul Ashworth.
0:43.3	Paul serves as chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
0:47.3	He joined the London-based research firm in 2001
0:50.3	from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
0:53.3	after taking degrees in economics and mathematics at Strathclyde and Warwick in the United Kingdom and completing a PhD in monetary policy.
1:01.3	In 2010, Paul was named Wall Street Journal, Forecaster of the Year.
1:05.3	Paul, thank you so much for joining us on the Longview.
1:08.4	You're welcome.
1:09.7	Glad to be yet.
1:14.0	Well, it's good to have you at a time of great economic uncertainty.
1:17.6	Perhaps we'll be feeling less uncertain after our conversation. I want to start out by asking what life has been like for you in recent weeks as a macroeconomist
1:22.8	covering the U.S. market in the wake of the Trump administration's Liberation Day tariff
	...

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