Ted Audio Collective. Hello everyone you're listening to after hours. I'm Felix. I'm me here and it's time for predictions Felix it is time for predictions you know how you predict all kinds of things all year long really not only at the end of the year right ever you ever go back to check, are you mostly right, mostly wrong?

You know, I don't that often.

I think part of the fun of it is just thinking about the future. I don't think you necessarily really want to be

constrained by the mistakes you've made in the past. Having said that, obviously, as you

point out, every day we make a thousand predictions and we naturally create intuition out of all those little

predictions and I think that's a very powerful process and so I don't think I've ever

formally gone back and really revisited it, but I think

predictions are a way of honing intuition, which has got to be one of the most important

skills in life. That's in part what makes it fun.

Yeah, I'm exactly like you.

I rarely go back.

That's always been really fascinating to me

how much people are influenced by what actually happened.

So exposed, you see the company got bought or the company didn't get bought.

But really what it's mostly about this was your thinking right. Exactly.

If the thinking was correct that let you to make a prediction,

because it's all uncertain, it's all probabilistic anyway.

And so you shouldn't be swayed very much.

Your thinking was right, it was 50--50 and I guess half the time what happens in the end is not what you predicted

but you shouldn't really be that influenced

it's tempting sometimes to look at ex post outcomes and be like,

oh I was wrong and it's not always the right way to think about the problem.

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