4.5 • 664 Ratings
🗓️ 4 November 2024
⏱️ 42 minutes
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0:00.0 | Okay, everyone. Here we are. We have just two days left in the craziest campaign season most of us can remember, at least that I can remember. |
0:22.6 | I mean, four indictments, 34 felony counts, one switch at the top of the Democratic |
0:26.6 | ticket, and two assassination attempts later, we are now standing on the edge of what feels |
0:32.6 | like a very tall cliff. And one of the truly remarkable things about this race is that with so much |
0:39.4 | volatility with dozens of moments that we all felt like maybe this is the determining factor right |
0:44.3 | now, the race still looks remarkably close. The new cycle surprised us constantly throughout, |
0:50.5 | but there were a few polling moves that really surprised us that much in terms of massive |
0:56.2 | movement. |
0:57.5 | That isn't until last night. |
0:59.0 | Before I show you these numbers, and you may have seen them, but you should know where |
1:02.4 | they come from. |
1:03.4 | And they come from Anne Seltzer, the widely respected, incredibly accurate historical, historically |
1:09.0 | pollster at the Des Moines Register in Iowa. |
1:11.6 | The phrase gold standard gets thrown around a lot in polling, but I can tell you, Anne Seltzer |
1:17.0 | is actually the gold standard. |
1:18.4 | I mean, Ann Seltzer just gets it right much more than she gets it wrong. |
1:21.4 | That makes you the gold standard. |
1:23.0 | In 2016, Seltzer was out on a limb predicting that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton |
1:26.8 | in Iowa by seven points. |
1:28.5 | Guess what? Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by nine. In 2020, her final poll before the election had Trump up seven and he ended up winning the state by eight. |
1:37.6 | Well, in her final poll before this election, released just last night, and Seltzer's Des Moines Register poll sent a bit of a mini earthquake |
1:46.0 | around last night across the political world because it showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump |
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