Obsession Over Recession Depression: Feeding the Economic HypeBeast.
Unf*cking The Republic
UNFTR Media
4.9 • 683 Ratings
🗓️ 28 May 2022
⏱️ 68 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
We just came through the eighth “technical” recession over the past 50 years and many predict that another is around the corner. Depending upon who you believe we might already be in one, we are about to drop off a cliff or it’s only smooth sailing ahead. Today we talk about how to measure a recession, the different character of prior downturns and why it doesn’t really fucking matter to most of us.
Chapters
Intro: 00:00:51
Prologue: 00:01:48
Chapter One: Recessions Defined: 00:05:08
Chapter Two: Recessions of the Modern Era: 00:09:20
Coffee Break: 00:22:33
Chapter Three: Thwart. Mitigate. Or Fuck it. 00:23:43
Chapter Four: Yo Max, we gonna be okay or what? 00:36:01
Post Show Musings: 00:46:20
Outro: 01:03:13
Resources
National Bureau of Economic Research: Business Cycle Dating
The Balance: How Does the Fed Funds Rate Work, and What Is Its Impact?
CBS: Mortgage rates jump above 4% — prompting borrowers to return to a staple of the housing bubble
Macrotrends: Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart
The Conference Board: US Leading Indicators
St. Louis Fed: Personal Saving Rate
Federal Reserve: Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989
Pod Love
The Economist Asks: How will the war in Ukraine change the world economy?
The David McWilliams Podcast: Living with inflation, the story of Turkey
UNFTR Episode Resources
Corporate (Ir)Responsibility (Part I).
Corporate (Ir)Responsibility (Part II).
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | We're in a recession. I don't care what the economists say, I see it. |
| 0:05.0 | We're in a recession, and if this is handled badly, we're going to be in a depression. |
| 0:10.0 | I'm not predicting the end of the world or an immediate recession, but the road ahead does not look great. |
| 0:17.0 | The consumer is not rolled over yet. I think there's a zero chance of recession, |
| 0:22.0 | but that doesn't mean PEs can't get compressed. What is unavoidable is tax inflation. The house |
| 0:26.7 | view is slowing economic activity, higher rates, and probably a 30% chance of recession as you |
| 0:32.7 | look forward over the next 12 to 24 months. I think what's going on here is a realization that things are slowing down considerably, |
| 0:39.3 | and we may very well be in a recession right now. |
| 0:42.7 | Okay, it's happening. |
| 0:43.8 | Everybody stay calm. |
| 0:44.6 | What's the procedure? |
| 0:45.5 | What's the procedure? |
| 0:46.6 | Stay fucking calm! |
| 0:47.9 | Wait, wait, wait, wait, everybody is a fucking calm down. |
| 0:51.7 | Buckle up, mother unfuckers. |
| 0:53.7 | It's recession time. |
| 0:55.9 | This is the story of a political pundit who looked at the world around him and just said, fuck it. |
| 1:03.3 | Gives the middle finger to authority and says, kiss my ass. |
| 1:07.1 | But instead of a revolution, he started a podcast. |
| 1:10.9 | Just what the world needs, he started a podcast. Just what the world needs. |
| 1:13.1 | He started a podcast. |
| 1:14.6 | Another basic white guy who started a podcast. |
... |
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