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Nvidia's H20 China delays, plus the rise of AI companions 7/21/25

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 21 July 2025

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Nvidia said it expected to be able to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China, but the chip giant is still facing significant roadblocks to its restart there, including cancelled orders and supply chain obstacles. Plus, Elon Musk's AI model Grok has launched two new AI companions, just the latest in the rise of more social AI.

Transcript

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0:00.0

So shares of NVIDIA are up about 5% since the company said it expects to resume sales of its AI chips in China.

0:06.9

But that might not restart the sales as quickly as some investors are betting on.

0:12.1

Christina Pertzenevolos has more in today's tech check segment.

0:14.8

So when can we expect it, Christina?

0:17.0

Well, NVIDIA isn't expecting any meaningful H20 revenue from China until late this year.

0:22.3

The company said last week it likely won't see a steady sales cycle for this particular chip which is geared for China until after the October quarter.

0:29.6

That's because there are still a lot of roadblocks. You have export licenses that haven't been granted just yet.

0:35.6

Most earlier orders were canceled. And the company wrote down about $4.5 billion in inventory

0:40.9

with very little product ready to actually ship right now.

0:44.2

Morgan Stanley notes that even restarting production will take some time, since a lot of

0:48.5

the inventory wasn't actually finished chips, it was just work in progress.

0:52.4

Whip.

0:53.0

And Nvidia's supply chain takes roughly nine months

0:55.9

from wafer to the actual system that they can sell to customers. And so here's what that means.

1:00.6

Don't expect the H20 chips, those again for China, to contribute anything this quarter, zero

1:05.8

in July, according to Piper Sandler, and only limited upside next quarter is the company

1:10.0

wraps supply and

1:11.1

reconnects with customers in China. Longer term, though, InVIDIA does expect China revenue

1:16.0

to recover, potentially contributing anywhere between $10 and $15 billion annually. That stat is

1:21.5

according to Bernstein, and making up a low teen's percentage of total sale. But that's likely

1:26.7

lower than some of the earlier

1:28.2

projections of 20 billion, which now look overly optimistic given that longer time frame

...

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