This is CBS I and the World. I'm John Dutch with Gordon Chang at Gordon G Chang,

my colleague and co-host and friend, North Korea, a new article at 38 North by Robert

Carlin and Siegford Hecker, veterans of commenting on North Korea, points to

danger unusually at this time of year.

The paragraph that comes to immediate hand,

Washington and soul cling to the beliefs

that their alliance backed by ironclad deterrence will keep Kim on the status quo

trajectory, perhaps with some minor provocations. We welcome our colleague David Maxwell, the Foundation for

the Defense of democracies, to comment on ironclad deterrence in place in the careers.

Dave, a very good evening to you.

Thank you.

I've also seen press reports that Kim Jong-un has been speaking

what you'd have to say in a disconsolate fashion

about his dream of reuniting the peninsula.

Does deterrence remain adequate to keep him at bay?

Good evening to you.

Good evening to you. Good evening. The, you know, we're hearing a lot of rhetoric and I think there's a lot of overreaction to all this rhetoric, but there is some danger.

First of all, let me say that, as Sir Lawrence Friedman says,

deterrence works until it doesn't.

And I believe that we can deter Kim Jones deliberate decision to attack South Korea because of the presence of U.S. troops and the strength of the Rock U.S. Alliance.

That said, we can't deter every action by North Korea.

I certainly can't deter nuclear tests, can't deter missile tests, unless we are willing

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