A balmy summer week is no time to ignore the guardians of interest rates who are very much not on vacation.

I'm David Brancaccio in New York. Let's get right to the week ahead with economist Julia Coronado in Austin.

She is founder of macro policy perspectives.

Good morning to you.

Good morning.

So are you so persuaded we're not going to get a cut in interest rates from the Fed

this week that I shouldn't even pay attention it's a hundred percent done deal no

cut well it's very unlikely that they will cut this week but you should pay attention

David because they're going to tell us important things about their plans for

cutting in the coming months so markets are expecting a cut in September.

Jay Powell should give us some hints about that this week.

All right, so I won't abrogate my duties as a business reporter.

I will pay close attention.

You know, later this week, a big data set come out, the payroll report, the survey

of households that yields the unemployment report, that comes out after the Fed decides not to cut interest rates.

That's correct and that is a risk for the Fed because one of the reasons we're starting

to finally talk about it being time to cut rates is the unemployment rate has been

creeping higher. We'll get another read on that on Friday for July and economists

don't expect it to keep going up but they hadn't in the last few months

either and it's been creeping higher and it's certainly something for the Fed to

keep an eye on I think the Fed will be cutting rates in September and probably one or two more in the

remainder of the year.

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