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The John Batchelor Show

#NewWorldReport: Peru in deepening trouble. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 26 January 2023

⏱️ 6 minutes

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#NewWorldReport: Peru in deepening trouble. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-economy-growing-healthy-clip-despite-social-unrest-minister-says-2023-01-24/


Transcript

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0:35.0

This is the New World Report. I'm John Batswith, Professor Evangelist of the US Army War College,

0:40.0

to Peru, which is a troubled country, and the news these last days has not improved.

0:47.0

We see reports of deaths, reports of arrests, detentions, the closing off of major tourist attraction, Machu Picchu,

0:55.0

and the demonstration in Lima, Peru on January 23rd is massive.

0:59.0

We also have a President-Prolarte, who continues to carry on having inherited this role from the now detained and charged President Castillo, former President Castillo.

1:10.0

But then there are mixed signals. One, Professor, I mentioned, the Peruvian economy looks to be improving.

1:18.0

Now, this is reflecting rearview mirror in 2022, and recent reports about Glencore mine, the copper mine, having just being disrupted by protests.

1:31.0

So, how do you measure right now President-Prolarte's hold on Lima, the capital, and on the whole country?

1:39.0

And does this mean that the economy is going to continue to prosper despite the political turmoil?

1:46.0

Well, John, first of all, with respect to the economic projections, and underlying everything that's going on right now, Peru, in terms of its mineral resources, what's in the ground, oil is a fabulous rich country, going back to the Spanish, going back to Pizarro, if you kick a rock, you find something of value.

2:05.0

And so, really, Peru's economic performance has been a function of, if you didn't stop good things from happening, despite the government good things continue to happen.

2:16.0

Now, one of the issues recently has been, of course, that the protests in areas like, oh no, in areas like Cacamarca, in areas even in the Amazon.

2:25.0

One of the problems was blocking the exit routes, as we've talked about previously, for big mining companies, the Chinese mining companies, non-Chinese mining companies like Glencore, getting their material out, as well as the uncertainty created by the protests disrupting things.

2:41.0

So, the forecast that things could get better is based on the idea that you will have relatively, the mines will continue to produce and with increased international demand in the mineral sector, China's end of the zero COVID policy things should get better.

2:57.0

There was a hopeful projection of the new ballartate government has put forth a $1.5 billion stimulus package, which again, if that hopeful projection comes through, things will get better.

3:10.0

Beyond what could happen, the real concern is that you have increasingly organized in escalating violent protests in Lima itself, which is bringing pressure on a president who, frankly, doesn't have much political capital.

...

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