Hello fellow Rebel capitalists hope you're well.

Wanted to go over some new data that I just stumbled across today

that points towards a greater probability that we're actually in recession now.

Let's head right over to Twitter actually, and we're going to pull up a chart

for my good buddy Jeff Snyder and I heard him talking about this yesterday and

fascinating stuff here if we look at US industrial production, you see that when this goes negative year

over year, there's a very high probability that you are in a recession. So going back to 1920, we see that I believe 18 positives and six false positives.

So what I mean, just are talking about this and he's saying okay

but there's six times where you didn't have a recession such as you've got I believe two oh here you go here's a big one right here 2016 that's probably

the most prominent these others are just little teeny weeny dips here like in 1952.

But look at this 2016, you had a huge drop

an industrial production.

I'm not sure why that would have been. Maybe it's something to do with the

trade wars that were going on with China and Trump, maybe something like that. But regardless,

we had a huge false positive here. But you see that a lot of times going all the way back to 20, 1920, 18 times. It indicated that we were in a recession.

But what I'd like to do is encourage you to think about this in terms of the rest of the data that we have, most notably the yield curve, the two's and tens so if we go back

to 2016 we know that the yield curve was not inverted back then so this would have been

kind of an isolated data point but when you look at all the other data points that we have now, in addition to this U.S. industrial production now going negative, and Snyder has this giant black arrow here. You can see it's not by much. I mean it's only call it 0.5% but you know it's like the anything else it's when it starts it's it's not just boom all of a sudden it starts off slow and then it gains momentum and then month after month

It gets bigger and bigger and bigger until you get one of these big orange icicle looking things.

So this, I believe it's monthly data that the Fed comes out with and that's how I think the source data for Jeff's chart. We've got to really

pay attention to this and this is just another one of those metrics that we need to

add to our toolbox to determine the probabilities of not just

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