Hello fellow rebel capitalists hope you're well I wanted to go over what I think is the real indicator as to whether or not the United States economy is actually in recession when you combine this with real GDP, you guys remember back in 2022 we had two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP and they came out and said, oh, no, no, not a recession.

Nothing to see here because we didn't have high rates of

unemployment.

Oh, we got to have high rates of unemployment.

I'm sure if we get that, they're just going to move the definition again.

They're going to change the position of the goalposts, if you will.

But I think what we should really be looking at in terms of a recession when you combine it with real GDP is actually purchasing power.

Because at the end of the day, what is the unemployment rate measuring?

It's just measuring aggregate demand or they're just using that as a proxy for aggregate demand.

So when unemployment rate goes up, that's why the NBER, the agency that's in charge of determining

when it is we actually go into recession. That's what they're using as a proxy for demand.

You figure that 70% of the economy consumption.

So they figure that the only way demand, aggregate demand, can go down is if unemployment goes up therefore that's what they get hyper focused on.

But as we know we've lived this for the last couple of years, it's not just about whether or not people have a job.

It's about whether or not their wages are keeping up with the rate of inflation.

And if you've got inflation here and wages here, if there's a delta, then it's going to have the exact same impact on the economy as having a high unemployment rate.

So let's go right over to this article from CNBC. as having a high unemployment rate.

So let's go right over to this article from

CNBC, and you guys will see exactly what I'm referring to.

29% of households have jobs, but struggle to cover basic needs.

And again, this is not George Gamine talking.

This is not the tin foil hatter on YouTube.

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