Hello fellow rebel capitalists hope you're well as most of you know I've been in

Saint Bart's hanging out like good buddy Hugh Henry we got this guy right back in the

corner there that is Mr Josh himself. We're both down here hanging out with you

or at my Airbnb at this I guess you'd call us a villa in St. Barsey. You can actually kind of see the

Caribbean right there right above my hat. No, at the other side Josh. There you go.

There you go. And then we got the pool here.

We got the whole spread. But anyway, I wanted to go over one of the things that we were talking about last night at dinner.

I was with a couple of hedge fund guys and we were talking about the misconception that people have and I think the whole market has right now on the financial media and it happens every single time we go through one of these cycles where the Fed starts hiking rates and then you know they

don't all the way up until they break something everyone's very optimistic that if

they could just get to a point where inflation comes down,

and all of a sudden they could start lowering rates

and we'd have this soft landing or no landing,

and then stocks would just rip higher.

So what you want to do is you want to buy stocks in anticipation of the Fed dropping rates

because we know that when the Fed drops rates

the stock market goes straight up

and it's just if you look at history you see that it's just not true

that the opposite happens and I think that this is a potential time when the market

could be way way way offside that they're going risk on when it might be more prudent,

especially if history of the teacher, to be risk off.

So let's go through some charts here and I want to show you exactly what I'm referring to.

So let's start by going over a chart of Fed Funds and we go back to late 80s and we can see the recessions are in gray.

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