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Bulwark Takes

NEW POLLS: Trump’s Iran War is Deeply Unpopular

Bulwark Takes

The Bulwark

Society & Culture, News Commentary, News, Politics

4.71.2K Ratings

🗓️ 3 March 2026

⏱️ 18 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell take on the early polling after Trump’s strikes on Iran—and the warning signs for his coalition. Independents are overwhelmingly opposed, soft Trump voters are wavering, and the “America First” brand is colliding with a foreign war. Is this the start of a political fracture inside MAGA?

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey, everybody, Tim Miller from the Bullark here with publisher Sarah Longwell. We have a whole

0:04.4

slate of polling coming in already on Iran. And Sarah, I think I just have a caveat this.

0:11.3

I've been hesitant to just be overreactive to polling and stuff in this times, in part because

0:15.5

Trump has over performed his polling a lot at times. And, you know, this stuff's all moving and, you know,

0:23.0

it's happened very fast. But I think we see enough of a direction here that we can talk

0:29.5

pretty intelligently about how the public is reacting to this. So I just want to pop in with a

0:35.0

couple things right off. Then we'll get your top line thoughts. Prior to the strikes of times that asked people if they were interested in the U.S.

0:41.3

initiating an attack on Iran, only 21% had said yes.

0:46.6

Now here we are post-strike.

0:49.2

And CNN poll will just go over that one first.

0:51.7

It's most recent.

0:53.0

We had 41% of adults saying that they approve.

0:56.9

So Trump picked up about 20% of his cultists.

1:00.6

59% disapprove.

1:03.0

The independence number, I think, is the most telling.

1:05.5

32 approved 68 disapprove among independents.

1:09.0

We have a couple other polls to get to.

1:10.4

But what are your top line takeaways?

1:12.4

Top line takeaways are that those numbers map pretty closely to Trump's approval rating. And so, you know, if Trump is going to wage a war entirely by himself, then one of the things you're going to see reflected in the numbers is basically do people trust Donald Trump? And so when you've got about 60% of the country

1:29.9

that has a negative impression of the job that Donald Trump is doing, and specifically,

1:34.8

when a bunch of those people who voted for Trump because they wanted him to lower prices,

1:40.5

basically everything he does that is not directed at lowering prices for people,

...

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