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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Navigating the ‘perfect storm’ in commercial real estate

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 18 April 2023

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The recent stress in the banking sector appears to have abated but there are knock-on effects that are pressuring a key corner of the economy: commercial real estate. So could commercial real estate be the next possible crisis? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Lotfi Karoui, chief credit strategist and head of the Credit Research Group, and Jeffrey Fine, global head of Real Estate Client Solutions and Product Strategy in the firm’s Asset & Wealth Management business, assess the vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate market today.

Transcript

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0:00.0

The recent stress in the banking sector appears to have abated, but knockon effects are pressuring another key corner of the economy, commercial real estate.

0:08.5

So could commercial real estate be the next shoot a drop?

0:11.5

Where we stand today is this nearly perfect storm

0:15.2

of rates much higher, financing markets

0:18.8

almost completely shut down.

0:20.7

And we estimate that there's about four to five trillion dollars of debt in the

0:25.8

commercial and multifamily sectors of which about a trillion of that is maturing in

0:30.9

the next 12 to 18 months.

0:33.5

We've got a big right sizing in the market

0:36.0

that we're gonna have to confront.

0:37.5

That is gonna be the talk of the next 6 to 12 to 18 to 24 months

0:41.8

in our space.

0:42.6

I'm Allison Nathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs.

0:45.6

The turmoil that drove Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank out of business

0:58.0

is now shining a spotlight on the commercial real estate market which

1:01.8

relies on small and regional banks for loans.

1:04.6

So as these banks tighten credit, that could further disrupt a market that's already

1:08.8

weighed down by office vacancies, rising interest rates, and mounting debt.

1:13.3

To help assess the vulnerabilities in the market and the broader outlook,

1:16.5

I'm sitting down with Goldman Sachs Research's Lot Viqueaui, Chief Credit Strategist,

1:20.8

and head of the Credit Research Group, and Jeff Fine, Global

1:23.6

Head of Real Estate, Client Solutions and Product Strategy in the firm's asset and

...

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