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🗓️ 18 April 2023
⏱️ 28 minutes
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0:00.0 | The recent stress in the banking sector appears to have abated, but knockon effects are pressuring another key corner of the economy, commercial real estate. |
0:08.5 | So could commercial real estate be the next shoot a drop? |
0:11.5 | Where we stand today is this nearly perfect storm |
0:15.2 | of rates much higher, financing markets |
0:18.8 | almost completely shut down. |
0:20.7 | And we estimate that there's about four to five trillion dollars of debt in the |
0:25.8 | commercial and multifamily sectors of which about a trillion of that is maturing in |
0:30.9 | the next 12 to 18 months. |
0:33.5 | We've got a big right sizing in the market |
0:36.0 | that we're gonna have to confront. |
0:37.5 | That is gonna be the talk of the next 6 to 12 to 18 to 24 months |
0:41.8 | in our space. |
0:42.6 | I'm Allison Nathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs. |
0:45.6 | The turmoil that drove Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank out of business |
0:58.0 | is now shining a spotlight on the commercial real estate market which |
1:01.8 | relies on small and regional banks for loans. |
1:04.6 | So as these banks tighten credit, that could further disrupt a market that's already |
1:08.8 | weighed down by office vacancies, rising interest rates, and mounting debt. |
1:13.3 | To help assess the vulnerabilities in the market and the broader outlook, |
1:16.5 | I'm sitting down with Goldman Sachs Research's Lot Viqueaui, Chief Credit Strategist, |
1:20.8 | and head of the Credit Research Group, and Jeff Fine, Global |
1:23.6 | Head of Real Estate, Client Solutions and Product Strategy in the firm's asset and |
... |
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