meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
Money For the Rest of Us

National Debt Masterclass Finale - What To Do

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.5 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 22 May 2024

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.

Topics covered include:

  • How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers
  • How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt
  • Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt
  • How should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation


Sponsors

NetSuite 

Yahoo Finance

Our Premium Products

Asset Camp

Money for the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News

Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters

IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg

WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER

Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times

Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED

Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the rest of us. This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it.

0:10.0

I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 479. It's our finale in our three-part

0:16.6

master class on the national debt. In the past two episodes we've reviewed some important principles when it comes to federal government borrowing.

0:27.0

First, the national debt will never be paid off.

0:30.0

It will just continue to be rolled over and potentially grow over time.

0:37.0

What matters is the size of the debt relative to the economy, the private sector economy that creates the bulk of the income,

0:47.0

pays the taxes that are used to service the debt.

0:51.0

That private sector owns much of the debt in the form of assets.

0:56.0

A second principle we discussed was how the federal government working with the Central Bank can control the terms of the debt issuance,

1:05.0

including controlling the interest rates through what is known as financial repression.

1:10.0

Now even though governments can do that, they don't get a free pass.

1:14.4

The private sector can decide whether they want to hold the debt or hold the currency that the debt is denominated in.

1:23.8

If the central bank coordinating with the government is buying up the debt,

1:28.0

monetizing the debt, at the same time

1:30.8

the government's running a budget deficit that leads to big increases in the money supply

1:36.4

which if there are capacity constraints can lead to much higher inflation and that's

1:41.6

something we've seen in the US over the past few years.

1:45.0

Consequently there are consequences to government borrowing and government money creation.

1:50.0

Too much of it can overwhelm the private sector leading to inflation.

1:55.0

Now in part three, we're going to look at a simple formula to understand where are we?

2:01.0

At what level is the debt too high where a potential default becomes a reality?

2:08.3

Even at that default is through monetization higher inflation because the private sector doesn't want to

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from J. David Stein, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of J. David Stein and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.