National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System | Russell Napier

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 2 December 2024

⏱️ 57 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 392 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with author, investor, and financial historian Russell Napier, about how to navigate a seminal transition in the global trade and monetary order. This episode aims to provide you with the tools to understand, value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years.

In the first hour, Demetri and Russell Napier discuss the origins of the non-system that came to shape international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international system of fixed exchange rates. They discuss the de-pegging of the RMB from the USD, the closing of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and the implications of America’s escalating economic war against China.

In the second hour, which is available to premium subscribers only, Russell Napier and Kofinas focus most of their time on the implications of this breakdown in the international trade and monetary system for investors. They discuss how developed world governments are likely to repress capital, what you want to own in such a world, what you don’t want to own, and how to tell the difference. They also discuss what a new Chinese monetary order might look like, which countries would participate, and how such a system would build off China’s efforts to digitize the Yuan and create a Chinese-built digital payments infrastructure that extends beyond China’s borders as part of the Digital Silk Road initiative. They also discuss the prospects for a strategic Bitcoin fund, the use of stablecoins as an extension of Dollar hegemony, and the fate of the Euro in a world torn between Beijing and Washington.

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Episode Recorded on 11/27/2024

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Gaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.0	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, the challenge consensus
0:12.8	narratives, and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:18.7	My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Russell Napier, the author
0:22.5	of the Solid Ground Newsletter, the keeper of the library of mistakes, and the founder and
0:27.7	course director of the practical history of financial markets, which is available as both an
0:32.7	online and in-person course through the University of Edinburgh Business School. This is Russell's fourth appearance on the podcast.
0:40.3	He was first on nearly four years ago to discuss his experience living through the Asian
0:44.9	financial crisis and how it helps inform our understanding of the world we live in today.
0:49.7	Another time to discuss his macroeconomic and political framework.
0:52.7	And most recently, to join in a panel
0:55.0	with historians Helen Thompson and Edward Chancellor for a discussion about the new political
0:59.6	economy and the reversal of multi-decade trends in demographics, globalization, and energy.
1:06.3	Today's conversation builds on all of those discussions and could not come at a more important time for investors.
1:13.6	We are living through the early stages of an interlocking set of political, economic, financial, and geopolitical transitions
1:20.6	that will fundamentally alter the investment landscape and make or break fortunes in the process.
1:26.6	The next two hours are meant to help you navigate this transition by giving you the tools to understand, properly value, and manage the assets, exposures, and risks in your portfolios, and to capitalize on opportunities that come along only once every hundred years.
1:44.3	In the first hour, Russell and I discussed the origins of the non-system that came to shape
1:49.4	international trade and finance in the decades after the breakdown of the previous system
1:54.6	of fixed exchange rates established at Bretton Woods.
1:57.7	We discussed the depegging of the R&B from the US dollar, the closing
2:01.8	of the gap between the discount rate and the growth rate in developed economies, and
	...

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