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Plain English with Derek Thompson

Nate Silver on Why This Midterm Election Could Be the Weirdest in Decades

Plain English with Derek Thompson

The Ringer

News, News Commentary

4.72.1K Ratings

🗓️ 2 September 2022

⏱️ 53 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Earlier this year, it appeared that Democrats were going to get destroyed in the midterms. Joe Biden's approval rating was in the toilet, inflation was raging, and everything was going wrong. It wouldn't have been historically shocking if Democrats lost seats in November. The party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections, thanks in part to the electorate's preference for balance. But then something weird happened. Joe Biden's polls went up. And up. And up. Republican Senate nominees starting flailing across the country. Today, Democrats are favored to keep the Senate, and they have doubled their odds of holding the House. How did this happen? FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver joins the podcast to explain the big picture and analyze the most fascinating individual races, from Pennsylvania to Ohio. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. You can find us on TikTok at www.tiktok.com/@plainenglish_ Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Nate Silver Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Matt Bellini, founding partner of Puck News, and I'm covering the inside conversation

0:05.6

about money and power in Hollywood.

0:08.1

With my new show The Town, I'm going to take you inside Hollywood, with exclusive

0:11.9

insight on what people in show business are actually talking about.

0:15.6

Multiple times a week, I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know, journalists,

0:19.7

insiders, all of whom can break down the hottest topics and entertainment to tell you what's

0:24.0

really going on.

0:26.0

Listen now.

0:31.0

On today's episode, we have Nate Silver offering his analysis of what is turning out to be

0:37.0

an unexpectedly weird midterm election year.

0:41.0

So, a general rule of midterm elections is that the party in power loses.

0:48.0

This is as close to an ironclad law as you can find in politics.

0:53.0

Republicans were in power in 2018.

0:55.0

They lost.

0:57.0

Republicans in 2006 crushed Democrats in 1994 demolished.

1:04.0

There are exceptions to this rule, of course, 1998, 2002.

1:08.0

But it tends to require something like a geopolitical earthquake, like 9-11, to break the trend.

1:16.0

For most of the last year, it seemed like 2022 would be a typical midterm election year,

1:24.0

namely that Republicans would sweep in the Senate and the House.

1:28.0

I felt like the story was almost baked in.

1:31.0

I mean, how many times on this show have I said, Joe Biden is in the dog house with voters.

1:36.0

Democrats are screwed as long as inflation is at 40-year highs.

...

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