4.8 • 2.4K Ratings
🗓️ 21 August 2024
⏱️ 60 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
In his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling’s origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he’s been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI’s impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried’s place in “the River,” the trait effective altruists need to develop, the stupidest risks Tyler and Nate would take, prediction markets, how many monumental political decisions have been done under the influence of drugs, and more.
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Recorded July 22nd, 2024.
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0:00.0 | Conversations with Tyler is produced by the Mercadus Center at George Mason University, |
0:09.0 | bridging the gap between academic ideas and real world problems. |
0:13.0 | Learn more at Merkatus.org. |
0:16.0 | For a full transcript of every conversation, enhanced with helpful links, |
0:20.0 | visit Conversations with Tyler.com. |
0:24.0 | Hello everyone and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler. |
0:31.0 | Today I'm in New York City chatting with the new book out which I thought was excellent informative fun on every page on the edge the art of |
0:45.3 | risking everything. |
0:46.3 | Nate welcome thank you Tyler now if we simulated the world a thousand times |
0:50.9 | and how many of those scenarios would you end up more or less where you are today? |
0:56.1 | This is of course a question I asked Peter Teal and other people in the book. |
1:00.8 | Your father was a political scientist, presumably very smart, got you connected to politics. the I think I would wind up somewhere in this vicinity like 20% of the time or maybe less than that. |
1:20.0 | I don't know. |
1:21.0 | Because the fact that you had this big breakthrough or I did in the kind of 2008 election |
1:25.8 | which really was did involve like a lot of happenstance in certain ways. I had been like an online |
1:32.0 | poker player and basically the US |
1:34.8 | government shut down online poker. I mean technically they shut down payment |
1:38.6 | processing for online poker. But that got me very interested in the 2006 midterm because I wanted the people who had passed that law to lose their seats in Congress. |
1:46.5 | Meanwhile, I lost my source of livelihood. |
1:48.1 | I couldn't play poker and press buttons for 24 hours, or not 24 hours, for 40 hours a week, right? |
1:54.4 | So founded 538, just kind of on a lark, |
1:57.4 | and that kind of changed everything. |
... |
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