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Impolitic with John Heilemann

Nate Silver: Harris v. Trump Is the Closest Election I’ve Ever Seen

Impolitic with John Heilemann

Audacy | Puck

News, Politics

4.84.2K Ratings

🗓️ 27 September 2024

⏱️ 93 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

John is joined by the world’s most celebrated data nerd, polling aggregator, and election forecaster, Nate Silver, to discuss the 2024 election. Nate offers unnervingly precise takes on just how close the race is (it won’t calm your nerves a bit); Kamala Harris’s likelihood of winning each of the battleground states; the thesis advanced in the New York Times that the GOP’s advantage in the Electoral College is shrinking; whether the polling industry has cured what ailed it in 2016 and 2020; the “contingency plans” you should be making ahead of November 5; having so many people displace their election-related anxieties directly on to him. He also talks about his new bestselling book, On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, his relationship with Peter Thiel, his poker addiction, and why the movies Rounders and Moneyball are, well, everything. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Helloha and Kanishuwa friends and welcome to Inpolitik with John Hyalman a puck and odyssey joint

0:09.8

dropping fresh topical candid conversations twice a week with the people who roam the quarters of power and influence in America from Washington to Wall Street

0:17.3

Silicon Valley Hollywood and beyond shifting and shaping the warp and weft of our politics and culture

0:23.3

If the only thing you knew about Nate Silver

0:26.5

was the first line of his entering Wikipedia,

0:29.1

Nathaniel Reed Silver, born January 13, 1978, is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes

0:36.2

baseball, basketball, and elections, you might conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty

0:41.9

that the person being described was a grade a dork

0:44.6

a brainy but socially awkward dude more comfortable tweaking and twiddling with

0:48.6

abstract algorithms than going on dates a guy who spins an unhealthy amount of time hunched over his keyboard in a dimly lit room,

0:56.3

fingers quite possibly coated in cheeto dust, employment status, indeterminate, personality, wound tight as a top, and tendencies to sleep, bathe, or exercise, dubious.

1:09.0

Some, some of these suppositions are of course true about Nate Silver. He is in fact a

1:14.4

hardcore data nerd and does log way too much screen time. But Silver also

1:19.2

travels extensively, loves hanging out in Vegas casinos and other dens of iniquity and has both a solid sense of

1:25.0

humor even about himself and exemplary personal hygiene.

1:29.2

Not only has he been gainfully employed pretty much constantly, as long as you count the three-year

1:33.8

stretch where he made most of his money playing online poker after he graduated

1:37.6

from the University of Chicago back in 2000. As the founder and presiding genius behind

1:41.9

538, the Seminole, and for a time definitive website that

1:45.2

pioneered the art and science of polling aggregation, election forecasting, and high-end political data

1:50.1

journalism, he was ridiculously over-employed at some of the most prestigious

1:54.9

institutions in American media, the New York Times, E-SPN, ABC News.

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