Narrative Watch: Impatience, Greed or Fear? What's driving the crypto Fall blues?

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 9 September 2019

⏱️ 16 minutes

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Summary

Despite Bakkt opening warehousing, BTC holding strong around $10k, and many new announcements, it's hard not to view the mood around crypto Twitter as lethargic. Is it simple impatience and the wrong time preference? Is it reflective of a recognition that alt season - at least for the 2017 ICO vintage of coins - doesn't seem anywhere on the horizon? Is it actually a more creeping nervousness around the global economy? That's what we explore on this week's Narrative Watch. Watch: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to another narrative watch. How's it going? Everyone? Happy Monday, happy September,
0:06.4	happy almost fall. So today, I want to look at an interesting phenomenon that I've been kind of
0:12.5	tracking for the last week or so, which is that it seems to me, and admittedly this could just
0:18.0	be a particular filter bubble I have, that there's a weird contrast between, on the one hand, things going pretty well, right?
0:26.0	Bitcoin hovering around 10,000 and holding strong at 10,000 for, you know, weeks on end, backed warehousing open,
0:32.9	anticipation of their futures, a couple weeks from now.
0:35.6	And all these things, there's still this sense of kind of gloominess or churger or like it's not excited.
0:43.3	It's not vibrant, right?
0:45.3	It doesn't feel like this fall explosion, back to school, back to work and all this sort of stuff.
0:48.3	It just kind of feels static.
0:50.3	And try to figure out why that is.
0:52.3	And I asked folks last week for their answers to this and got a ton of great responses. So I want to kind of go through three possibilities. So possibility one is simple impatience. So a lot of folks, so I asked, as you can see here, what's your best explanation for why? despite BTC sticking strongly at 3x cycle lows,
1:12.2	everyone is acting so goddamn gloomy. So a lot of the answers had to do with time preference,
1:17.9	had to do with simple impatience, right? So Vortex says simply time preference, right? Indicating that
1:23.7	people are just looking at it on the wrong time scale, that they're frustrated that things
1:27.0	aren't moving faster, but it's really about the people, not the assets in particular, not Bitcoin.
1:35.1	You had other folks who said something like this, right, impatience for the rest of the world
1:39.1	to understand the value proposition, and thus orange coin go up with a gif of a Simpson saying, hurry up.
1:46.0	So you kind of have, you had a lot of this different tone, this different tenor.
1:52.3	You also had, I thought this comment was great from David Levine.
1:55.5	He says, we are in the transition from BTC as a globally day-traded video game to
2:00.8	BTC as an institutional asset class.
	...

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