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The John Batchelor Show

#MrMarket: The bond market is signaling year-end Fed funds rate at 3.75%. Brett Arends, Marketwatch.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

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4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 14 March 2023

⏱️ 10 minutes

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#MrMarket: The bond market is signaling year-end Fed funds rate at 3.75%. Brett Arends, Marketwatch.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-interest-rates-inflation-svb-collapse-3495de76


Transcript

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0:00.0

This is CBS I In The World. I'm John Bachelors, Silicon Valley Bank. No longer accepting deposits,

0:11.7

waiting for the Federal Reserve regulators and everyone else watching to return the money

0:17.6

of the people who keep their money in the Silicon Valley Bank. Investors not so lucky.

0:24.1

I welcome break the glass bread errands because not quite a market crash, but certainly a major event has happened

0:31.9

around the world to banking shares and to doubts about the US banking system. Systemic risk is again

0:39.8

in the conversation. Brett, a very good even to you. I only call upon you when the market crashes.

0:45.3

This is a boutique crash having to do with banks, but it is nonetheless a reminiscent of what we

0:52.5

lived through in 2008. The Federal Government is keen to say there is no bailout. However, at the same

0:59.5

time, setting that moment aside at the same time, the question is, is there contagion? The word contagion

1:07.3

is the great risk factor here. After a day's trading, do you see evidence that this is spreading?

1:13.7

Good evening to you. Good evening. Good evening. Yes, you know, as your listeners will remember when we

1:21.0

talked about this on Friday, also to people who are going around saying, oh, this is a one bank issue.

1:28.3

It's a very specific issue to SPP. There's no systemic risk. It won't spread. And as I said on Friday,

1:35.8

you know, they said that in 2007, 2008. They might be right, but they have no way of doing so you

1:43.1

should just ignore those comments. But people who say, oh, everything's fine, just ignore them because

1:48.1

they said exactly the same thing in 2008. Well, what we've seen today has been absolute chaos,

1:54.4

really, in banking stocks. We've got banking stocks down, I mean, Schwab was down about 25% at one

2:00.5

point. First for public stowns, about 60%. We have an absolute, we have absolute chaos in the banking

2:08.4

sector, at least as regarded, regardless of the stocks. So clearly, the market fears that there

2:14.2

is contagion. And everyone I talk to thinks that other banks are going to be shutted or would be

2:21.9

very surprised if other banks aren't shutted before this is over. So yes, I mean, the problem with,

2:27.8

you know, Warren Buffett famously said, you know, there's never one cockroach. You know, when you

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