This is CBS Eye on the World.

Here's John Batchler.

The markets watching the end of the first quarter,

ready for the second quarter, waiting for the recession.

Jim McTay, former Washington editor of Baron's magazine,

is here to watch for that recession.

One way to do it is to follow the app that it connects to the Atlanta Fed

where there's an estimate of the quarter's growth.

And Jim has mentioned to me several times that suddenly the Atlanta Fed

downgraded the growth expectations that existed until March 24th.

And now Jim, a very good even to it's not negative.

However, it's a downgrade at the end of the quarter.

Is this significant or do they always play this game,

scaring people immediately?

By John. No, it's significant because the Atlanta Fed's forecasting model

has proven over time to be very accurate.

And their GDP, they had been projecting that the quarter,

which ends today, which, which 0 3.4% growth.

And suddenly today they changed, it changed its mind and said,

make that 2.5% growth.

So that's a significant slowdown in a very short period.

Because on March 24th, or even yesterday, they were showing 3.5.

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