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The Early Edge: A Daily Sports Betting Podcast

Monday Night Football PROPS—Texans vs Steelers Wild Card

The Early Edge: A Daily Sports Betting Podcast

CBS Sports, Sports Betting, Sports Gambling, Picks

Sports, Football

4.5778 Ratings

🗓️ 12 January 2026

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Our NFL Experts of Sia Nejad, Larry Hartstein,  Mike McClure, and Danny Brasco break down all their favorite Player and Team Props, plus Sides and Totals, for Monday Night Football's Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card game!


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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

It's time to hit up some props right here on the early edge with Larry, Danny, and Mike.

0:08.4

And as we always do, we start with passing props. Larry, I'm going to start with you on C.J.

0:14.8

Stroud. Yeah, going under 21 and a half completions. If you just look at his career outdoors, he's under 60% in terms of

0:23.2

completion percentage indoors. That spikes all the way up to 66%. A lot of his other metrics go down

0:29.4

when you're outdoors. And I just think they are going to play a conservative. They know they have

0:33.6

an elite defense. They're going to run the ball a ton. So getting to 22 completion

0:38.3

seems like a big ask. I think the main thing is they don't want to let T.J. Watt or Highsmith or

0:43.1

Herbig make a big play to, you know, to spark the Steelers. And if they do that, they probably feel

0:49.0

they're going to win. Mike, I know you agree with this play. And I know we have some rushing props that kind of correlate with an under-completions prop.

0:59.4

Yeah, it's just a big number, in my opinion, for a game that I think is maybe a little bit more of a slow mover.

1:04.7

You know, in the previous segment mentioned what Aaron Rogers is so good at, working a game clock and managing, giving his team a chance to win late, I think that means limited possessions. And I think if you're Houston, you certainly want to lean on that running game as much as you possibly can. I keep going back to the fact that I don't think C.J. Stroud is great outdoors. And it's also a product of that offense and that system. A lot of when they've had a lot of success offensively has been when they've been able to kind of push the ball down in the field, that's difficult to do in these conditions. So I think that you want to play completions and attempts here because I think there's a scenario late where they are having to throw a ton. I'm going to go under on the completions with Larry. I agree, Mike, about the rough conditions and about the scenario that I think is more likely than not that C.J. Stroud and company are going to have to throw late. And that's why this is the first time all year I've brought this prop because I don't usually play I&T props. I'm going to take C.J. Stroud over half an interception on the road against a pretty healthy Steelers defense. This one's minus 110. I think there's actually some good value here in spite of the fact that we don't think there's going to be a ton of volume from C.J. Stroud. Speaking of volume, though, we got to get to Aaron Rogers. Danny Brascoe, you like some volume from Aaron. I mean, Mike McClure talked about it earlier, man. This is maybe the last hurrah for Arod. And the game and offense is on him. He's way over his pass attempts number in the last three games, all of which have been must win down the stretch against strong defenses, too. He had 41, 39, and 47 attempts. He's well over this 32 and a half mark in four of his last five games. And he's

2:35.3

got to make it happen. I think we're going to see a lot of short area, you know, quick think and dunk

2:39.5

targets. And the Steelers could be playing in, like Mike said, a really long kind of sustained

2:45.3

drives in which they're managing the clock. Or the Texans defense gets on them quick. They're playing from behind and

2:52.0

Rogers is forced to, you know, throw the ball in a negative game script. Either way, I think he's

2:55.7

going to put the onus on himself and go over this past attempts total. All right, we go from volume

3:00.9

at the quarterback to volume at the running back position. Larry, you and Mike are an agreement here

3:05.5

on Woody Marks, but I'm going to let you give the take on over 15 and a half rush attempts.

3:11.7

Yeah, you look at him down the stretch.

3:13.1

He's cleared this in the last six games where he has finished the game, aside from the game that he had to leave due to the ankle injury.

3:20.0

This is what they want to do.

3:21.2

Our colleague prop bet guy over at Sportsline noted,

...

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