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Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: Adapting to The Ninth Wonder of the World

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Global, Macro, Fixed Income, Strategy, Equities, Business, Markets, Economics, Alternatives, Investing

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 20 July 2020

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Understanding the regime of financial repression we are under, and recent changes in it, is key for successful investment. Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson explains.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome and thoughts on the market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment

0:05.3

Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my

0:09.0

colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the

0:12.0

latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday,

0:14.8

July 20th at 1130 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it.

0:19.1

Albert Einstein is credited with saying compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.

0:23.9

He who understands it, earns it, and he who doesn't pays it.

0:27.6

Whether Mr Einstein was in fact the one who first said this, it's quite possibly one of the greatest

0:32.0

financial truths the world has ever known.

0:34.3

However, today's interest rates are zero, and even negative in some cases.

0:38.4

On a real basis, interest rates are negative all the way out to 30 years in the U.S, and while we can't ask him today, I wonder

0:44.1

what Albert Einstein would have to say about that.

0:47.0

It seems to me that the corollary to his statement might apply.

0:50.1

When real interest rates are negative, it's called financial repression, and it very well might be the

0:53.9

ninth wonder of the world.

0:55.5

It's a boon to borrowers and attacks on savers.

0:58.6

As with compound interest, he who understands it reaps its rewards, while he who doesn't watches his real well shrink.

1:05.5

A big part of investing is understanding what investment regime we're in.

1:09.1

Over the past 20 years we've been living in a world dominated by monetary policy decisions.

1:13.3

This monetary policy dominance has been a function of three things.

1:17.2

First, potential growth in the developed world has been falling as population growth slowed

1:21.6

and productivity failed to maintain its blistering pace in the 1990s.

...

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