Mike Murphy on the Mid-Terms (& the madness of polls)

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Ark Media

Society, October 7, Hamas, War, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Israel, News Commentary, News, Politics, Elections, Palestine, Dan Senor, Government

4.8 • 2.3K Ratings

🗓️ 17 September 2022

⏱️ 53 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Between now and November, we will be taking a close look at the midterm election season, which -- for most voters -- is just kicking off now. If history is a guide, the first mid-term election cycle of a new president should result in the opposing party (the party not in the White House) scoring a wave of victories in Congress. How big will the wave be? New polls suggest that there may not be much of a wave for Republicans. But are these new polls missing something? To offer a masterclass in how to de-code the polls -- and a number of other dynamics in these midterms -- Mike Murphy returns to the podcast. Mike’s worked on 26 gubernatorial and US Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in Blue States – something that’s getting harder and harder to do for Republicans. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. He’s a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the Hacks on Tap podcast and newsletter. And Mike’s also co director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future. Pieces discussed in this episode: Mark Mellman: : https://tinyurl.com/3v74z3hp Nate Cohn: https://tinyurl.com/dzjrbc2m Hacks on Tap podcast: https://tinyurl.com/55j5pe5k Hacks on Tap newsletter: https://tinyurl.com/yckkzrpx

Transcript

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0:00.0	Polls give you a great idea what happened two weeks ago and I have no doubt that the perception
0:06.3	of the Democrats is higher now than it was a hundred days ago.
0:11.5	But does that mean that the polling number of the 800 people who were
0:16.2	called two weeks ago, today, those opinions today, project what will happen on November 8th and the answer is no. Between now and November on this podcast we'll be taking a close look at the
0:39.7	midterm election season which for most voters is just kicking off now.
0:44.9	If history is any guide, then the first midterm of a new president should see the
0:48.6	opposing party enjoy a wave of victories in Congress. How big will that wave be? Well it depends.
0:55.8	What is the President's approval rating? Does the electorate think the country is on the right
0:59.4	track or wrong track? How do voters rate the president's handling of the economy and
1:04.4	does the quality of the candidates running actually matter? Or are we,
1:09.0	practically speaking, more of a parliamentary system in our midterm elections in which the party rather than
1:14.0	the candidates is all that matters.
1:16.8	Other than aberrations like 1934 during FDR's first midterm and 2002 George W Bush's first midterm, the party in the
1:26.1	White House has usually suffered during these midterms. And that was the course
1:30.2	we were on for President Biden and the Democrats heading into this fall, but a bunch of new
1:35.6	polls have just dropped, suggesting that there may not be much of a wave for Republicans after
1:41.1	all.
1:42.1	Are issues like inflation, crime, and immigration being
1:44.7	eclipsed by the re-emergence of Donald Trump and the Supreme Court's
1:48.6	overturning of Roe versus Wade? And what about Biden's recent string of legislative victories? Do they
1:54.7	matter? Well to offer a master class and how to decode the polls and a number of
2:00.2	other issues in these midterms, my old pal, not old, long-time
	...

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