Welcome to Hard Talk on the BBC World Service with me, Stephen Saka. For much of his diplomatic

career, my guest today has been involved in formulating America's Russia policy. He was a Russia

expert on the National Security Council in the Obama-Biden administration before moving to the Pentagon

as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.

He's now America's permanent representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, based in Vienna.

In other words, Michael Carpenter is an American official who has spent years analyzing Vladimir Putin's intentions and working on the American response.

So does the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent a failure of diplomacy and deterrence?

And what should the U.S. and its European allies do now?

Well, Ambassador Carpenter joins me now from Vienna. Welcome to Hard Talk. Good to be with you. Ambassador Carpenter, you've spent many years of

your professional life making it your job to study very closely, Vadimir, Plutin and his intentions. When did you conclude that he was going to

mount a full-on invasion of Ukraine? Well, Stephen, we saw the indications of this already in the

early fall that the combat power that was being assembled on Ukraine's borders was not just for show, but had all the

enablers and all the other elements that would be necessary for a full-scale invasion. And we've

been telling allies this for some time. Now, a lot of them were incredulous. Unfortunately,

I didn't want to believe myself, but we are where we are today with a full-scale Russian invasion

of Ukraine. It's just tragic. If you felt that way and the administration felt that way,

because I dare say you weren't the only advisor looking at this very closely, why did the

administration not do more to try to preempt Putin's invasion? Look, we warned the world that this was coming. We also

told the Kremlin in no uncertain terms that there would be massive and unprecedented repercussions

for a military escalation in Ukraine of whatever variety, whether a full-scale invasion or something

smaller. Unfortunately, it looks like the Kremlin didn't believe us or concordination. escalation in Ukraine of whatever variety, whether a full-scale invasion or something smaller,

unfortunately, it looks like the Kremlin didn't believe us, or concluded that somehow it could

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