Welcome to our exchanges at Goldman Sachs markets update for Friday, October 30th each week

we check them at the leader across the firm to get a quick take on what they're watching in markets.

I'm Jake Stewart Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm and my

guest today is Amelia Garnett back with us from our cross asset sales desk in the global markets division.

Amelia, welcome back.

Thanks so much for having me for such a critical week.

You've left Maine. Back in New York City. We're taking this Thursday afternoon a lot could happen

between now and the morning but we're only five days from the US election

arguably one of the more important macro events for the past four years. What are your clients thinking about as we sit here right before the election?

Sure, so I think that right now it all comes down to two things. The first is the election, which will dictate policy and most importantly

fiscal policy in the short term, and to the vaccine which will dictate the

future path of COVID. So just on the election I'd say that consensus expectations are that we see

the Democrats take the presidency, the House and the Senate. Though there's definitely

uncertainty around a couple of things.

First, polling error, people have pretty raw memories of 2016,

and particularly in the more contentious states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin,

investors are certainly cautious about how accurate the polling is.

I'd say the second part of uncertainty is around the ultimate composition of the Senate.

For example, if the Democrats take 51 seats,

they'd be able to get their fiscal policy through.

But if they get 53 or 54 seats, that could definitely enable them to eliminate the

filibuster and address other policy issues like tax and the judicial

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