Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 October 2025

⏱️ 19 minutes

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Summary

Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief US economist David Mericle explains the factors driving the economy and the divergence between solid GDP growth and a slowing labor market. This episode was recorded on October 20, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at www.GS.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Is the U.S. economy still on solid footing?
0:08.0	This spring, the big question was whether a recession was ahead.
0:12.0	Now the question seems to be, how is the U.S. economy proven so resilient?
0:16.0	And what does its continuing strength mean for the Federal Reserve?
0:19.0	I'm Alison Nathan and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
0:23.6	This week I'm joined by David Miracle, our chief U.S. economist in Goldman Sachs research.
0:30.6	David, welcome back to exchanges.
0:31.6	Thanks, Allison.
0:32.6	Great to be back.
0:33.6	David, it's been a little while since you've been with us.
0:35.6	So why don't we start with you providing
0:38.0	us a top line view of what's going on with the U.S. economy right now? We've obviously been
0:43.3	lacking a lot of the data we normally get because we have this ongoing government shutdown.
0:48.6	But it seems like growth is holding up relatively well despite fears that we and I think many
0:54.0	people had, that tariffs
0:55.6	would weigh on growth. So what explains that resilience?
0:58.7	Yeah, I think that's right. We came into the year, like most forecasters, expecting modest
1:04.0	tariffs and 2% plus GDP growth. We found out in March and April that we were getting a lot more
1:09.3	than we bargained for in the way of tariffs, and we and most forecasters lowered our growth forecast from, call it the 2% plus neighborhood to the 1% neighborhood. Since then, we are, as you said, a few weeks out of date because of the government shutdown on what exactly is going on. We've missed a number of data releases. but based on what we knew before the shutdown,
1:28.2	it looks like actually we're on track for growth this year more in the high ones rather than 1%.
1:33.4	And I think it is fair to say that the impact of tariffs has not been as negative as we might
1:38.6	have thought back in March and April. My diagnosis of that would be that it's primarily because we've not seen much in the way of foreign
	...

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