MacroVoices #477 Michael Howell: Are We Approaching A Debt Refinancing Crisis

Macro Voices

Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Business, Investing, Business:investing

4.8 • 3.4K Ratings

🗓️ 24 April 2025

⏱️ 68 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Howell. They’ll discuss cyclicality of credit markets, why we should think of them as a refinancing system rather than a credit origination system, and what can be learned by taking this street-smart approach to credit market analysis. https://bit.ly/42F9PsA 🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook 📈📉: https://bit.ly/3EDxOjM ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4cMmu0d 🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna 🔴 Subscribe to Erik's Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/ 🔴 Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors.
0:18.9	Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance
0:22.6	and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your
0:29.2	hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna. Macrovoices episode 477 was produced on April 24th, 2025. I'm Eric Townsend.
0:42.1	Cross-border Capital CEO Michael Howell joins me as a first-time feature interview guest. Michael's
0:48.6	firm specializes in analysis of credit markets, but not by the textbook approach of analyzing individual securities,
0:57.1	but rather through a lens inspired by the real-world wisdom that the availability of credit
1:03.2	is determined more by the markets need to lend than the borrower's ability to repay.
1:09.5	We'll discuss cyclicality of credit markets, why we should think of them as a refinancing
1:14.4	system rather than a credit origination system, and what we can learn by taking this
1:19.4	street-smart approach to credit market analysis to heart.
1:22.6	And I'm Patrick Sirezina with the macro scoreboard week over week as of the close of Wednesday, April 23, 2025.
1:30.2	The S&P 500 index up 190 basis points trading at 5375.
1:36.5	The market continues to consolidate after an extraordinarily volatile start to April.
1:41.4	We'll take a closer look at that chart and the key technical levels to watch
1:45.2	in the postgame segment. The US dollar index up 50 basis points, trading at 9978, bouncing from
1:52.8	an oversold condition, but is this going to be a bigger swing low? June WTI crude oil up 71 basis points training at 6227. The June Arbop Gasoline
2:05.6	up 147 basis points training at 207. The June gold contract down 155 basis points to 3294. After hitting
2:15.6	3500, some profit taking finally kicking in.
2:19.6	That may copper contract up 342 basis points, training at 484, a strong recovery from the nearly
2:27.4	$4 low that we saw a few weeks ago.
2:30.4	Uranium up 92 basis points, trading at 6565, that U.S. 10-year treasury yield up six basis points,
	...

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