This is Macro Voices with hedge fund manager Eric Townsend, the free weekly financial

podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and

other sophisticated investors. Macro Voices is all about the brightest minds in the world

of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish your bearish, no holds

barred. Now here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Sarasna.

Macro Voices episode 239 was recorded October 1st, 2020. I'm Eric Townsend. This episode

is brought to you by top traders on plug.com, a podcast dedicated to quant and rules based

investing, helping investors overcome behavioral biases, and by farmtogether.com, bringing

farmland a new trillion dollar investment opportunity within reach of all accredited investors.

When I interviewed petroleum geologist Art Berman back in June, Art told us to expect

US oil production to fall off a cliff in Q4. Well, today is the first day of Q4, and

it's no coincidence that we're bringing Art back for an update on his outlook on the oil

market. We'll discuss what's changed and what hasn't changed since Art's last interview

back in June. Then be sure to stay tuned for our post game segment when Patrick will present

another of his famous post game chart books. This one evaluating whether the reflation

trade has ended or not. And I'm Patrick Sarasna. Now Eric, let's jump into that SMP 500.

I mean, more or less we can define the last week as the market bouncing. We've obviously

put some sort of a short term swing low in the markets and we've been retracing towards

this 3,400 level. What's your take on all of this? Is there more upside or is this

for this little rally? I have no idea, Patrick. I certainly do agree that it's very likely

described as a bounce as opposed to necessarily a trend reversal. It was a perfect touch

of the 100 day moving average, which is a key technical level. A lot of people bought

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