Live from Chicago: Decoding China — China’s economic miracle interrupted?

Sinica Podcast

Kaiser Kuo

Culture, China News, Hangzhou, Chinese, International Relations, Chongqing, Beijing, Sichuan, Currentaffairs, China, Politics, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, China Economy, News, China Politics, Business, Film, Shenzhen

4.8 • 676 Ratings

🗓️ 19 October 2023

⏱️ 56 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week on Sinica, a live recording from October 10 in Chicago, Kaiser asks Chang-Tai Hsieh of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, Damien Ma of the Paulson Institute’s think tank MacroPolo, and our own Lizzi Lee, host of The Signal with Lizzi Lee, to right-size the peril that the Chinese economy now faces from slow consumer demand, high youth unemployment, a troubled real estate sector, and high levels of local government debt. This event was co-sponsored by the University of Chicago’s Becker-Friedman Institute, the Paulson Institute, and The China Project.

06:32 – What is the current state of the Chinese economy?

11:14 – The origins of China’s crisis in comparison to crises from 1990 in Japan and 2008 in the U.S.

14:25 – Real estate sector’s role in the crisis and possible solutions

22:51 – The significance of able management during times of crisis. Is this a crisis of confidence or expectations?

29:34 – The question of the general direction of the Chinese economy

43:33 – What does an actual debt crisis look like in China?

48:00 – The right U.S. policy towards China in light of current affairs

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Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to this special live recording of the Cynica podcast here in Chicago, Illinois.
0:13.3	Hello, Chicago.
0:19.1	I am Kaiser Guo, and we are here tonight with this terrific and very handsome and well-appointed
0:26.2	crowd from Chicago by an event put on by the University of Chicago's Becker-Freedon Institute
0:32.3	for Economics, a program that pulls together folks from Chicago's Booth School of Business
0:37.4	with its Kenneth G. Griffin Department of Chicago's Booth School of Business with its Kenneth
0:38.4	G. Griffin Department of Economics, its Harris School of Public Policy, and its law school.
0:44.2	Becker Friedman has partnered with the Paulson Institute and its in-house think tank Macropolo.
0:50.3	Still, the cleverest name ever given to an organization dedicated to research on China,
0:55.0	Macropolo, let that sink in for a little while. It's amazing. And with the China project,
1:00.1	of which this podcast is a proud part, and we are all joining together to bring you tonight's
1:05.3	program decoding China. China's economic miracle interrupted. A huge thank you to our friends at the Becker
1:12.4	Friedman Institute and at the Paulson Institute for making this happen in this magical spot.
1:17.3	The sun's coming down. You look at the beauty of just the amazing Chicago skyline. What of you?
1:23.7	If I'm, you know, sort of not listening and wandering off distracted, you'll know
1:29.1	exactly why. So there's, there's so much to talk about. So let's jump in. All summer long,
1:33.9	we've heard deep pessimism about the state of the Chinese economy. There is a long litany of
1:39.8	woes that have been repeated and amplified to the extent that I've gotten, frankly, kind of suspicious.
1:47.3	You know, flagging consumer demand, we all know stubbornly high savings rates accompanying that the obvious problems faced now by major residential
1:56.1	realty developers like Evergrand and Country Garden, high levels of youth unemployment, and of course,
2:01.0	enormous local government debt. Now, none of my guests today are the sort of economists that
2:07.7	American presidents and CEOs have often wished they had at hand. That is, economists with
	...

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