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Belle of the Ranch

Let's talk about whether Harris will bounce....

Belle of the Ranch

Belle of the Ranch

Society & Culture

4.91K Ratings

🗓️ 16 August 2024

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Let's talk about whether Harris will bounce....

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Well, howdy there internet people, it's Bell again. So today we're going to talk about whether or not Harris bounces.

0:08.0

Sounds weird, right? In political lingo in context,

0:12.0

bounce refers to the anticipated uptick in polling after a party's

0:16.2

presidential nominating convention.

0:19.2

Most times, candidates see a decent jump in polling after their party's convention.

0:24.0

So most commentators are expecting Harris to score even higher in polling later this month.

0:30.0

First, a quick little note that's worth acknowledging if you're in the polling

0:34.4

prediction business and it's a phrase we've already said most times.

0:39.2

Most times, candidates get a bounce.

0:43.0

So there's exceptions in history.

0:45.3

Does Harris share a link to the past exceptions?

0:48.3

What are the notable examples of candidates who didn't get a convention bounce.

0:53.7

Cary and Romney, what do they have in common other than the obvious answer of

0:59.2

they didn't win?

1:01.2

Both of them announced their running mate early.

1:04.0

So did Harris.

1:05.6

Carrie's announcement was early because it reportedly leaked after somebody saw the

1:10.2

VP Pick's name being painted on the campaign plane.

1:14.0

Romney's announcement also reportedly came early because of a leak to the press.

1:20.0

Harris had to announce her running mate early because of Ohio.

1:25.0

But there's a parallel.

1:27.0

There's been a theory since Romney that the convention bounce is really about the running mate being announced, not the presidential candidate.

...

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