Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bell again.

So today, we're going to talk about Trump's cardboard box problem.

Get ready to start seeing a bunch of news about cardboard boxes, leaving the normally

self-contained economic news and entering the main news coverage, because we've

got another barking dog indicator for the economy. First, a quick rundown on the indicator

itself. Alan Greenspan was the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve and held that position for

almost 20 years, under four different presidents,

serving from 1987 to 2006.

Every economist has their favorite out-of-the-box leading indicator for recession.

Greenspan followed the cardboard box index.

Really, he looked at a specific type of paper called liner board that was used in making corrugated cardboard boxes. But same thing. It basically works like this. Roughly, three-quarters of non-durable

U.S. goods moves in a cardboard box. So, cardboard box

demand is a proxy measurement for the amount of goods being shipped. Because goods being

shipped gives a good indication of consumer demand. It's a good measure of economic health.

Businesses don't ship goods if they aren't

selling. More boxes is good. Less boxes is a sign of economic downturn. It's important to remember

that Greenspan's tenure ended in 2006. E-commerce is more than a trillion dollars per year today. It was a tenth of

that in Greenspan's Day. So the box indicator is probably even more important today. So,

since I'm explaining how the indicator works, you can probably already guess the news.

We're seeing a big decline in expected demand for cardboard.

International paper is reportedly shutting down two mills in Georgia.

That's going to cut around 9% of U.S. capacity.

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