Well, howdy there, internet people, it's Bell again.

So today, we're going to talk about recession risks and explaining the Buffett indicator.

So recently, we talked about the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, and his current trend of building up a large stockpile.

We're talking about billions upon billions

of cash and liquid assets. That led to a bunch of messages that brought up the question of what

metrics he uses and what metrics make him nervous. If I knew every metric he used, I'd be a day trader. But I do know one he's probably

motivated by, the one that bears his name, the Buffett Indicator. How does it work and what does it do,

right? To keep it simple and just skip over the debate over which index to use, it's a comparison

of the value of the stock market to the gross domestic product.

According to Buffett, if the stock market value is over 200% of the GDP, it means stocks are

overvalued and you're playing with fire. He said, quote,

if the ratio approaches 200%, as it did in 1999 and part of 2000, you are playing with fire.

So, what is it today? By the last numbers available, which was the 15th of November,

it's, well, at 201%. That would suggest people are playing with fire. It's worth noticing

that Buffett hasn't totally pulled out of the market, and recently directed buy-ins to two companies, a national

pizza delivery company and a pool company.

Even with that news, the Buffett indicator says what it says.

In related news, a strategist for BCA research has said he believes the risk of recession in the next year to now be 75%.

He points to Trump's proposed economic policies, in particular mentioning tariffs and spending

cuts of social programs.

On tariffs and the idea that some believe Trump's tariff stance is just a negotiating tool,

he said, quote, for Trump, tariffs are not a means to an end. They are the end in themselves.

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