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More or Less: Behind the Stats

Kenya’s Election Rounding Error

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.63.5K Ratings

🗓️ 27 August 2022

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

When the official figures were announced in Kenya’s presidential election, it looked like the total percentage share of the vote for each candidate came to more than 100%. As this should not be possible, many wondered if up to 142,000 votes might be miscounted. We explore what turns out to be a simple mathematical misunderstanding of the numbers.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is the more or less podcast, the show that examines the numbers in the news and in

0:08.2

life.

0:09.2

I'm Charlotte Moodonald.

0:11.7

This week we're looking at the recent elections in Kenya, an examining how a simple mathematical

0:16.7

mistake has been used as a tool to challenge the results.

0:21.2

Here to help tell the story are two colleagues from the BBC in Kenya.

0:25.6

I'm Beverly O'Cheng, most people call me Belle and I'm a journalist at BBC monitoring

0:30.8

Nairobi where I primarily focus on sub-Saharan Africa, politics, media and security.

0:37.0

My name is Peter Muay.

0:38.0

I work with the BBC Reality Check Team.

0:40.0

The democracy is almost making its way to the main podium to give Kenya the final result.

0:53.3

On August 15th, the chairperson of the Independent and Electoral and Boundaries Commission of Kenya

0:58.5

announced the results of the much anticipated presidential elections.

1:01.9

There were four candidates, but in reality it was a contest between two men, Rai No Dhinga

1:08.2

and William Ritu.

1:10.0

In the run-up to the elections, it was well understood that the establishment figure

1:13.4

was Rai No Dhinga.

1:15.0

He had the backing of the incumbent President Uruguayata.

1:18.6

So on the result came, it was clear that it was a very close run race.

1:23.7

To win, one of the candidates needed at least 50% plus one of the vote, and William Ruto

1:29.7

had managed to get 50.5%.

1:33.4

O'Chenga came in second with 48.8%.

...

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