Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Grants Podcast. I am Jim Grant. I founded this publication

and continue to edit it. And I want to talk today with my deputy editor, Evan Lorenz.

Hey Evan, how are you doing?

And doing good, thank you. Excellent. Talk about the name in the banner, that is interest rates. Grants' interest rate observer is the name of our sheet, our publication, 12 pages every two weeks. And, you know, when I founded this thing in 1983, we actually had interest rates. God, they were fabulous. You put money in the bank and pretty soon you'd

have more owing to the accretion of capital through the compounding of interest. Then came the

great financial crisis at some length and interest rates seemingly vanished. Evan Time does fly,

and I got into the business well before what turned out to be the beginning of the greatest bull market in bonds, probably in history.

It began in October of 1981, and the first of October to be exact.

And it has lasted, possibly to this moment, we now speaking early 2017, but you know,

we at grants think that it ended in July of 2016, which would make it 35 35-year bond-ball market.

Pretty fine.

So what I would like to talk about today with Avid is the nature of cycles and interest

rates.

One of the funny things about the bond market, about fixed income security, is about the interest

rates that define

their value, is that these interest rates tend to move in generation-length cycles up and down.

Nothing like this in other departments of finance, as far as I know.

Stocks don't move in generation-length cycles, and neither is real estate.

But in this country, in America, interest rates peaked around the time of the Civil

War.

This is the 19th century, at 1865-66, and they declined more or less persistently until about 1900. And they

rose from 1900 to about 1920. And they fell from 1920 to 1926. And they rose from

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