JPMorgan's Josh Younger on Rate Derivatives and Volatility Ahead of the Election
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 26 October 2020
⏱️ 56 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
For months now, traders have been positioning for a major volatility spike around the November election. But what are markets really expecting, and how are investors hedging? On this episode, we speak with Josh Younger, a rate derivatives strategist at JPMorgan to discuss how he goes about finding signal in the market's noise, how traders are positioning, and what could be a shock to the market on election day.
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| 0:00.0 | Together we have the opportunity to build a more sustainable and inclusive future. |
| 0:06.0 | At the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, we help make this possibility a reality |
| 0:11.0 | by cultivating new connections among global leaders that transcend geographies, industries |
| 0:16.3 | and ideologies. |
| 0:18.4 | Because when global leaders work together, the outcomes benefit all of us. |
| 0:23.0 | Learn more at Bloomberg New Economy.com. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast, I'm Joe Wiesn't though I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe |
| 0:46.8 | Wiesndall. Joe we have been watching the Vicks haven't we? |
| 0:54.3 | We have. |
| 0:55.3 | I mean it's been, we've had a lot of episodes this year for pretty obvious reasons looking |
| 1:01.3 | at the Vicks exploring volatility what signal is embedded in it |
| 1:05.9 | what it tells you what it doesn't but people love hearing about the VIX so |
| 1:10.9 | I'm always up to talk about it. You know as I said that sentence I kind of realized what a weak intro it was and I need to work |
| 1:19.3 | put more thought into how I start these things but yes no it's fine it's fine we talk a lot about |
| 1:25.9 | volatility we talk a lot about the market structure of volatility but lately we've been talking about volatility more in the short term in the sense that we have this really big |
| 1:37.6 | potential tail risk on the horizon in the form of the US elections and if you look at the VIX, even though it's relatively low, if you look at the actual term structure or the curve of the VIX, you can see it's quite, well, it's not as elevated as it was a few weeks or months ago but it's still |
| 1:58.1 | elevated compared to normal right around the time of the elections and for a few weeks after that. |
| 2:04.5 | So that's a bunch of people pricing in the risk of something unexpected happening in the |
| 2:10.1 | U.S. elections. |
| 2:11.1 | Yeah, absolutely. |
| 2:13.0 | I mean, this has been building for a while. |
| 2:15.0 | I shouldn't note we are recording this Tuesday, October 20th. |
| 2:18.8 | So we are literally two weeks away from November 3rd election day, |
... |
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