Jon Turek on the Macro Outlook for 2022
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 23 December 2021
⏱️ 52 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
2021 was a historic year for markets and the broader economy. For the first time, seemingly in ages, there was a serious shift in realized inflation and the broader inflation outlook. This has ramifications, potentially, for risk assets, bonds, and, of course, the Fed. To help break things down, and how to think about the situation, we speak with Jon Turek, the author of the Cheap Convexity Blog and founder of JST Advisors, to understand what comes next.
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| 0:30.0 | Hello and welcome to another episode of the Adlots podcast. I'm Joe Wyzenthal. |
| 1:00.3 | And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, it's been a long time since we've done like a sort of like, |
| 1:06.0 | I don't know if it's been too long. It feels like it's been a while since we've done like a pure |
| 1:09.8 | sort of macro episode. We obviously do a lot of micro. That's been one of the fun things about |
| 1:15.6 | 2021. But I think it's time to switch back to the macro. I was going to say we've been distracted |
| 1:22.6 | by the micro in attempting to put together a better picture of the macro in all fairness. But |
| 1:29.6 | yes, you are right. It's been a while since we talked about the general outlook for the economy |
| 1:35.5 | and for markets. And of course we are looking ahead to 2022. And there are a lot of things going |
| 1:43.9 | on and a lot of things that people are concerned about. So obviously we have inflation worries. |
| 1:50.7 | And then we have a slowdown in China as well. And then we have of course the Fed's reaction |
| 1:57.0 | function. And there are still a lot of questions over what exactly it's going to prioritize going |
| 2:01.2 | into next year. Yeah, exactly right. And you know, I think the other thing about this environment |
| 2:07.0 | and it's kind of applied. It's like nobody has any familiarity with this type of economic |
| 2:13.2 | environment. I mean, it's pretty new. So yes, we've seen periods of elevated inflation before, |
| 2:19.6 | for sure. But by and large, this is not like the 1960s or the 1970s. It's different conditions. |
| 2:26.0 | Employment is growing extremely fast. We had a pandemic. We're still in a pandemic. And so that |
| 2:31.2 | is totally new. The policy responses that we've seen are new. So I think kind of what makes this |
| 2:37.4 | interesting is just like, yeah, everyone could like sort of reach for analogies. But there's no |
| 2:42.0 | real experts who could say, you know, this is the playbook or anything. Everyone is on some level |
... |
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