J Scott: We’re Due for a Recession, But It Isn’t All Bad for Real Estate

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

BiggerPockets

Education, Business, Investing

4.8 • 16.5K Ratings

🗓️ 10 January 2025

⏱️ 44 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Will mortgage rates remain above seven percent in 2025? Are we closer to a recession than most Americans realize? Why does it feel like this economic cycle of high rates and a struggling middle class will never end? The biggest question is: What do all these factors mean for real estate, and should you still be investing? We brought on the man who literally wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing to give his 2025 outlook. J Scott has flipped over 500 homes, manages and owns thousands of rental units, and has been involved in tens of millions of dollars in real estate transactions. He started investing in 2008; he’s seen the worst of recessions and the highest of pricing peaks. We brought him back on the show as our industry expert to provide his time-tested take on what could happen in 2025 and share his economic framework for forecasting what’s coming next. J says we’re long overdue for a recession—and the red flags are popping up more frequently. While signs of a global recession loom, J explains what this means for mortgage rates and home prices and why now might still be the time to invest. In This Episode We Cover: Why J believes we’re closer to a global recession than most people think New Trump presidential policies that could have huge impacts on inflation (and mortgage rates) Whether mortgage rates will stay in the seven percent range EVEN as the Fed lowers rates The broken economic “cycle” we find ourselves in and the only way to fix it Could home prices correct/crash if mortgage rates finally do fall? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Ask Your Question on the BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets YouTube J's Newsletter Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Grab J’s Top Real Estate Investing Books Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Read the Latest Blog Posts from J Connect with J Connect with Dave Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1068 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey everyone, Dave Meyer here from Bigger Pockets. Right now, at the start of a new year,
0:10.0	it is the perfect time to take somewhat of a reset and make a plan on how to maximize your
0:15.2	financial position over the next 12 months. And on this channel, we firmly believe that investing in real estate
0:21.7	is the single best way to do that. But we also, at the same time, understand that a lot of you
0:27.8	may not have ever invested before. Or maybe you have, but you sat out 2024 because it was a really
0:33.3	confusing and uncertain year. So today, we're going to catch you up by asking a few of the
0:38.3	biggest questions about the year ahead. We're going to cover mortgage rates and whether
0:42.8	there's any hope of rate relief in the coming year. We'll talk about whether the entire world
0:48.4	is basically missing recession red flags in the U.S. And we'll talk about some potential
0:53.6	Trump policies like deportations and tariffs that could
0:56.9	have an impact on the housing market.
0:58.9	We'll also cover a bunch of other topics.
1:01.0	But the general idea here is that although we don't know the answers to these questions,
1:05.3	if you can track these trends and where they're heading, you're going to be in a better
1:08.8	position to understand the market
1:11.0	and jump in on great deals in 2025.
1:14.3	And joining me to talk through these big questions is a familiar face from the BP family, Jay Scott.
1:20.7	Jay has been involved in more than $60 million worth of real estate transactions during his
1:25.1	career.
1:25.7	He's hosted a podcast for Bigger Pockets,
1:27.6	and he's written five bucks, including one with me. Let's bring on Jay.
1:32.5	Jay, welcome back to the Bigger Pockets podcast. Thank you for joining us.
	...

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