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Guaranteed Human.

Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grudowski.

Thank you guys for being here.

I want to go over some polls before going to the main topic.

And the poll is in Ohio.

There's a new UGov poll that in Ohio finding is the Trump plus 11 state, a state that Trump won by 11 points.

And the generic ballot is

Trump plus five, which would suggest the entire national ballot has a six-point swing

in Democrats' favor. Remember, Republicans won the last election by two points nationally. This

would mean the Democrats will likely win by four points. That's pretty good, actually, for Republicans.

It's not nearly as aggressive as a lot of people thought it would be. Now, if that's true, though, Republicans should be able to pick up at least one U.S. House seat in Ohio, that it's the ninth congressional district in Northwest Ohio. Democrat Marcy Kaptur has represented that district since 1983 before I was born, actually a couple of years before I was born.

The seat has recently been redistricted as a deal with Democrats.

Democrats made a deal with Republicans that basically they would get two.

There's three big swing districts in Ohio.

They would make two of the swing districts more Democrat.

Republicans would make one swing district more Republican, and that's Marcy Capter's seat.

Her district went from being a Trump plus seven district to a Trump plus 11 district.

It is a very hard win for Democrats if they want to win that seat.

On the senator's side, incumbent John Eustad is beating former

senator, former incumbent senator, Sherrod Brown. So Sherrod Brown is the defeated.

He's not the incumbent. He's the former senator. He was defeated two years ago.

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