Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 17 April 2025

⏱️ 42 minutes

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Summary

For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets.

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Transcript

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0:59.4	Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.
1:14.1	I'm Joe Wisenthal.
1:15.2	And I'm Tracy Allaway.
1:16.6	Tracy, U.S. exceptionalist.
1:18.8	Like, to my mind, the big question for investors is like we've had this 15 year plus run of where it's like the only game in town has been
1:30.0	you invested the U.S.
1:31.6	You did not get paid for diversification.
1:34.4	Arguably you didn't even get paid for diversification within the U.S.
1:37.3	because you should have just been in tech stocks the entire time.
1:40.3	But I really feel like this is the moment where people are asking, like, is this one trade
1:47.0	that's worked out so well? Is it coming to an end? You know what I really like? I like talking about
1:51.6	U.S. exceptionalism in markets because no one immediately starts debating, like, the definition of
	...

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