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Politics Unpacked

Is this the election result?

Politics Unpacked

Anna Covell

News & Politics, Politics, News

4.41.4K Ratings

🗓️ 27 November 2019

⏱️ 16 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

As YouGov releases its seat-by-seat forecast for the election, Matt Chorley speaks to pollster Chris Curtis about how it works, and what could change.

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is a passenger announcement. You can now book your train on Uber and get 10% back in credits to spend on Uber eats.

0:11.0

So you can order your own fries instead of eating everyone else's.

0:15.0

Trains, now on Uber. T's and C's apply. Check the Uber app.

0:20.0

Hello and I'm with the Red Box Politics Podcast on The Times, I'm Matt Jorlett.

0:26.6

Well it's here. The most hotly anticipated poll of the election campaign has landed.

0:30.5

You Gov publishing its MRP model with the Times.

0:34.7

What is MRP stand for, the multi-level regression and post- stratification model?

0:39.8

It basically takes a huge sample poll, over 100,000 people and tries to model how different types

0:46.5

of voters in different parts of the country are planning to vote and then from

0:50.6

that project what the election result would be.

0:55.0

So you want the cold hard numbers.

0:58.0

As it stands, this model suggests the Conservatives will increase their number of seats. They will have an overall majority of

1:05.2

68 seats going from 318 MPs in 2017 to 359. Now labour will lose 51 seats dropping from 262 to 211.

1:18.9

The Lib Dems make almost no progress at all, losing some seats, gaining some seats up from 12 to just 13.

1:26.6

The SMP jumped from 35 to 43 taking back lots of the seats they lost two years ago.

1:33.1

Pied Cummery on four.

1:34.9

No gains at all for the Brexit Party

1:36.4

or any of the independents who are standing across the country.

1:39.7

So what is this MRP?

1:41.1

How does it work?

1:42.1

How is this different to a standard voting poll? What impact

1:45.3

at the last few days, extraordinary days in British politics had on it and will this play

...

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