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Money For the Rest of Us

Is the Rest of the World Selling America?

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Economy, Economics, Investing Podcast, Business, Investing

4.3 • 1.3K Ratings

🗓️ 23 April 2025

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.

Topics covered include:

  • What was the narrative and economic and financial performance from 1995-2001, 2002-2012, and 2012 -2024.
  • How the performance of the U.S. dollar impacted returns
  • Why did economic forecasters predict the U.S. national debt would be paid off in 2011, and why were they wrong?
  • Signs that the current economic and financial narrative is shifting.


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Show Notes

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Outlook for the federal budget and implications for fiscal policy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate January 25, 2001—The Federal Reserve Board

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data

Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller—Princeton University Press

Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times

Tourism boycott? Europe travel to US drops in wake of Trump presidency by Talyta França & Alessio Dell'Anna, Mert Can Yilmaz—euronews

Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy by Nick Timiraos, Jack Pitcher, and Chelsey Dulaney—The Wall Street Journal

Related Episodes

519: Is This the End of Globalization and Free Trade?

380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us.

0:02.2

This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it.

0:09.3

I'm your host, David Stein.

0:11.0

Today is episode 521.

0:12.8

It's titled, Is the rest of the world Selling America?

0:17.4

For decades, the U.S. has been a favored investment destination, drawing capital from every

0:23.5

corner of the globe. But today, the narrative appears to be shifting. Robert Schiller, in his

0:30.9

2019 book Narrative Economics, wrote, a key proposition of this book is that economic fluctuations are substantially driven

0:39.9

by contagion of oversimplified and easily transmittable variance of economic narratives. In other words,

0:49.3

economies and financial markets are driven by stories. David Tuckett, who's trained in economics,

0:56.3

medical sociology, and psychoanalysis wrote, when investors buy, sell or hold all classes of

1:03.7

financial assets. What they're doing is constructing narratives about their future relationships

1:09.5

with an imagined idea, what they think will happen.

1:13.0

We all do this. We do it subconsciously. And stories can change. What I want to do now is go through

1:20.1

three economic regimes over the past 30 years. This time span covers my investment career. And we'll look at the stories that drove what was

1:31.7

going on and how that was reflected in financial outcomes. The first period is July 1995 to July

1:41.1

2001, six-year period. I began my investment career in July 1995. I joined F.EG

1:49.7

advisors as an analyst slash consultant. And I remember that the U.S. stock market rose 37% in

1:58.9

1995. And over that six-year period, this was during the dot-com bubble, where there was

2:06.5

internet mania. Stock markets were soaring in the U.S. was attracting gobs of foreign capital to

2:14.4

invest in many of these startups and in the U.S. market overall.

2:19.0

Growth stock investing trounced value investing. And that capital flowing into the U.S.

...

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