4.3 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 23 April 2025
⏱️ 21 minutes
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The U.S has traditionally been a safe haven for investing, but that hasn't been the case in 2025. We explore three economic and narrative regimes and consider why we may be witnessing a shift after 12 years of U.S. outperformance.
Topics covered include:
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Show Notes
Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product—FRED Economic Data
Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity (Output per Hour) for All Workers—FRED Economic Data
Donald Trump vs Mr Market by Tim Harford—The Financial Times
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0:00.0 | Welcome to Money for the Rest of Us. |
0:02.2 | This is a personal finance show on money, how it works, how to invest it, and how to live without worrying about it. |
0:09.3 | I'm your host, David Stein. |
0:11.0 | Today is episode 521. |
0:12.8 | It's titled, Is the rest of the world Selling America? |
0:17.4 | For decades, the U.S. has been a favored investment destination, drawing capital from every |
0:23.5 | corner of the globe. But today, the narrative appears to be shifting. Robert Schiller, in his |
0:30.9 | 2019 book Narrative Economics, wrote, a key proposition of this book is that economic fluctuations are substantially driven |
0:39.9 | by contagion of oversimplified and easily transmittable variance of economic narratives. In other words, |
0:49.3 | economies and financial markets are driven by stories. David Tuckett, who's trained in economics, |
0:56.3 | medical sociology, and psychoanalysis wrote, when investors buy, sell or hold all classes of |
1:03.7 | financial assets. What they're doing is constructing narratives about their future relationships |
1:09.5 | with an imagined idea, what they think will happen. |
1:13.0 | We all do this. We do it subconsciously. And stories can change. What I want to do now is go through |
1:20.1 | three economic regimes over the past 30 years. This time span covers my investment career. And we'll look at the stories that drove what was |
1:31.7 | going on and how that was reflected in financial outcomes. The first period is July 1995 to July |
1:41.1 | 2001, six-year period. I began my investment career in July 1995. I joined F.EG |
1:49.7 | advisors as an analyst slash consultant. And I remember that the U.S. stock market rose 37% in |
1:58.9 | 1995. And over that six-year period, this was during the dot-com bubble, where there was |
2:06.5 | internet mania. Stock markets were soaring in the U.S. was attracting gobs of foreign capital to |
2:14.4 | invest in many of these startups and in the U.S. market overall. |
2:19.0 | Growth stock investing trounced value investing. And that capital flowing into the U.S. |
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